一文了解券商於中行(03988.HK)公布業績後最新目標價及觀點
中國銀行(03988.HK)早市靠穩，券商普遍指其去年業績符合預期，但同時關注其海外業務的不明朗前景。中行上周五(27日)收市後公布去年業績，純利按年升4.1%至1,874.05億元人民幣符預期，每股盈利0.61元人民幣。派末期息0.191元人民幣。
中行去年營業收入按年升9.2%至5,500.1億元人民幣，其中淨利息收入按年升4%至3,742.5億元人民幣，手續費及佣金收支淨額按年升2.8%至896.12億元人民幣。淨息差按年跌6點子至1.84%，成本收入比按年跌9點子至28%，平均總資產回報率為0.92%，減少2點子；至去年底核心一級資本充足率為11.3%，按年減少11點子，不良貸款率為1.37，按年減少5點子，貸款撥備率為2.97%，按年減少10點子。
中行副行長林景臻表示，今年外部經營環境出現新情況，但對該行1至2月貸款投放影響不大。截至2月公司貸款按年增加介乎323億至918億元人民幣。隨著各地陸續復工復產，信貸需求逐步恢復，預計疫情對首季信貸投放影響有限。中行風險總監劉堅東指，疫情對該行首季度資產質量有衝擊，料逾期貸款在首季及上半年會上升。該行仍會按監管要求貸款，對受疫情較大影響企業調整還款安排，甚或適當下調利率等，強調仍會力爭今年維持穩定資產質量。
【業績符預期 海外存挑戰】
匯豐環球研究認為，中國銀行去年業績為中性，淨息差溫和下跌及淨利息收入受惠貸款總量增加而上升，扣除保險索償的實質成本收入比率亦見改善。但該行指中國銀行海外業務不確定性上升，基於新型冠狀病毒疫情及全球減息。該行維持對中國銀行「買入」評級，目標價4.7港元。
美銀證券下調對中國銀行目標價，由3.88元降至3.58元，維持「買入」評級。該行指，中國銀行去年純利及撥備前經營溢利均符合預期，派息比率維持31%及毛息率達7.1厘，為同業中較高者。該行下調對中國銀行今年盈利預測1%至2%，反映宏觀不確定性下股東成本率上調50點子1，但認為中國銀行股息及估值吸引，且有穩定增長。
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本網最新綜合10間券商對中行投資評級及目標價，1間券商下調目標價，8間給予「買入」、「增持」、「跑贏大市」或「跑贏行業」評級。
券商│投資評級│目標價(港元)
中金│跑贏行業│4.82元
匯豐環球研究│買入│4.7元
瑞銀│買入│4.6元
招銀國際│買入│4.6元
摩根士丹利│增持│4.4元
花旗│買入│3.92元
建銀國際│跑贏大市│3.8元
摩根大通│中性│3.7元
高盛│中性│3.63元
美銀證券│買入│3.88元->3.58元
券商│觀點
中金│去年業績平穩，今年面臨較大挑戰
匯豐環球研究│海外業務情況變得不清晰
瑞銀│去年第四季業績勝預期，今年公司貸款料見更快增長
招銀國際│海外曝險不確定性增加
摩根士丹利│去年第四季業績受投資收益帶動，資產質素大致穩定
花旗│去年第四季撥備前經營溢利呆滯
建銀國際│於傳統領域維持強勢，盈利勝預期受惠信貸成本下降
摩根大通│海外業務增長風險上升
高盛│業績符預期
美銀證券│估值吸引，為下行提供緩衝
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