《大行報告》瑞銀下調小米(01810.HK)目標價至13.8元 評級「買入」
瑞銀發表的研究報告指,該行將2020年環球智能手機出貨量跌幅預測調由5%修訂至14%,並估計今年首三季跌幅將達22%,而第四季則會有復甦,並假設蘋果將於12月推新iPhone而非9月。在中國市場方面,該行認為初步有復甦跡象,故料需求將相對有彈性。瑞銀估計到2021年環球智能手機出貨量將有顯著復甦,並將按年增12%。
該行重新審視了小米集團(01810.HK)的預測,將公司2020-21年智能手機出貨量降至1.1億台及1.3億台,2020年料公司主要市場均會錄跌幅,當中內地及印度將分別跌7%及17%,但在歐洲與電訊商合作等料仍可帶動溫和增長。而與其他內地品牌比較,該行認為小米定位相對理想,渠道庫存較少,加上線上渠道接觸面較大,此外公司的5G手機亦較早推出市場,相信考慮市場情況公司會加快推出5G手機。
公司早前公布去年收入將逾2,000億元人民幣,而調查機構的數據顯示第四季公司智能手機出貨量為3,200萬台,按年增16%,總體而言該行估計公司去年第四季收入及淨利將分別為587億及23億元人民幣,而海外擴張拖累營銷開支增加,故該行下調了對其淨利預測。另外該行亦將公司今年首季智能手機出貨量預測降至2,530萬台,意味將按年跌27%,並將其淨利預測降約6%,目標價由15元降至13.8元,評級「買入」。
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