建發國際(1908.HK)：繼續保持積極擴張步伐，維持”買入”評級，目標價15.00港元
機構：興業證券
評級：買入
目標價：15港元
投資要點
維持”買入”評級，目標價15.00港元：公司目前正處在快速成長階段，2017至2020年合約銷售金額CAGR達到90%，為內房中最快速房企之一，與銷售同步，公司也持續在土地市場持續積極獲取項目，海西區域市場競爭力強，其他區域拓展有序推進。公司繼續保持高派息回饋股東，當前股息收益率超過9%，我們預計公司2020/2021年淨利潤為22.4/29.4億元，同比增長30.3%/31.3%，維持“買入”評級，目標價15.00港元，相當於2020/2021E的6.9倍/5.3倍PE，對應現價還有68%的上升空間。
淨利潤同比增長21%，業績符合預期：2019全年公司實現營業收入180億元人民幣（下同）同比增長45.5%；歸母淨利潤為17億元，同比增長20.9%，毛利率和淨利率分別為25.9%和9.5%，由於結算結構的影響，分別同比下降7.4和2個百分點，公司全年每股派息82港仙，由於2019年增發以及CB轉股，實際派息總額預計達到8.5億元，派息率為50%，仍處於行業較高水平，目前股息收益率超過9%，公司全年業績符合預期。
銷售規模快速增長：公司2019年合約銷售翻倍，2020年銷售目標為700億元，同比增長38%，繼續保持高增長，公司可售貸值充足，達到1100億元，公司的產品以品質取勝，去化率優於行業平均水平，
繼續保持積極擴張步伐：2019年公司新增40塊土地，合計可售面積為667萬平米，總土地款為420億元，土地款權益比例為75%，平均拿地成本為7508元/平米，截至年末，公司的總土儲為935萬平米，同比增長68%，權益比例超過70%，2020年公司將繼續保持積極擴張步伐，利用強大的財務實力補充優質土儲。
財務狀況不斷優化：2019年公司銷售回款快速增長，同時完成配股和可轉債股權轉換股本增厚，公司的淨負債率降低66個百分點至176%，截至年末公司的賬面現金為116億元，總有息負債為463億元，間接股東借款佔約一半，一年內到期的貸款佔比為28%，實際償債壓力不大.公司的平均融資成本為5.4%，同比下降30bps，處於行業較低水平.
風險提示：宏現經濟增長放緩、行業限制政策加嚴、流動性收緊、商品房銷售不及預期、人民幣貶值
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