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北京首都機場股份(00694.HK)股份更新報告:戰略投資時機來臨,維持“增持”評級,目標價10港元
格隆匯 03-27 15:57

機構:國泰君安

評級:增持

目標價:10港元

摘要:

戰略投資時機來臨,維持“增持”評級。新冠肺炎疫情導致航班和旅客量驟降,股價超調。預計2022年航班和旅客量將恢復,當前公司具有戰略投資價值。維持2019-2021年預測EPS人民幣0.49、0.15、0.32元。根據DCF估值法和可比公司PB,維持目標價10港元。

疫情對航班和旅客量的影響大概率2021年消退。2003年SARS對航班和旅客量的影響持續2個季度,2008年次貸危機對航班和旅客量的影響持續1年左右。本次新冠肺炎疫情,各國普遍借鑑中國的封城策略將加快疫情結束,即使由此引發類似2008年的經濟衰退,對航班和旅客量的影響也有望在2021年消退。首都機場的區位優勢和時刻瓶頸,將使此後的航班和旅客量增速貼近運力供給增速。

2022年首都機場淨利潤有望達到25億元。預計2022年疫情和轉場的負面影響基本消除。時刻集中釋放將使2022年出入境旅客和免税收入達到2019年高峯的110%和140%,淨利潤有望達到25億元。首都機場從此將開啟新一輪增長週期,經營槓桿和免税業務將使淨利潤增速達到10%以上,ROE持續提升。

股價具有一倍上漲空間。疫情對短期盈利衝擊較大,但是對貼現價值影響較小。目標價對應2022年17倍PE和1.6倍PB,都接近各自的十年估值中樞,與A股上市機場也比較接近。2020年是公司盈利和市場預期的低谷,未來三年的預期投資回報率高。作為業務穩定、現金流充裕的基礎設施核心資產,首都機場已經具備戰略投資價值。

風險提示。新冠肺炎疫情擴大風險、關税政策與免税政策變動風險、收購關聯方資產定價風險、持續關聯交易定價風險、轉場航班量超預期風險、民航機場收費政策調整風險和擴建資本開支超預期風險。

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