安踏體育(02020.HK)：多品牌運動户外集團，管理優秀無懼風雨，維持“強烈推薦”評級
機構：東興證券
評級：強烈推薦
投資摘要：安踏體育發佈2019年年報，公司全年收益339.28億元，同比增長40.8%；經營溢利86.95億元，同比增長52.5%；股東應占溢利53.44億元，同比增長30.3%。
品牌接力護航公司長遠發展。安踏主品牌穩健，2019年實現收入174.50億元人民幣，佔總收入51.4%，較2018年增長21.8%。FILA品牌繼續高增長，2019年147.70億元人民幣，佔總收入43.5%，較去年同期增長73.9%。Decente等品牌培育效果良好，尤其Decente增速70%以上，馬上邁入十億體量俱樂部。公司的專業運動和運動時尚品牌，產品亮點頻頻，品牌力亦持續提升，品牌培育體系成熟，公司長遠發展有保證。未來主要品牌的增長以提升店效為主要方向。
公司零售管理能力優秀，助力盈利能力強勁。2019年度公司整體毛利率為55%，在行業內處於領先地位；較2018年上升2.4個百分點，主要由於FILA品牌佔比提升所致。未來公司毛利率會隨着高端品牌佔比提升繼續有所上升費用控制方面，得益於公司優秀的零售管理和供應鏈管理能力，經營支出比率穩中有所下行。整體上公司的經營利潤率水平有所上行。
擁有Amer51%股權的合營企業的虧損為6.33億人民幣，但其中公允價值分攤的影響是接近5億，一次性併購費用約2億，Amer公司本身業績基本符合預期。目前Amer經營受到歐美疫情影響，但是公司65%為冬季產品的結構，使得受影響幅度可控。疫情也不會影響Amer公司長遠的發展戰略，未來公司三大方向：1）大品牌，重點發展始祖鳥等三個品牌；2）重點發展直營渠道。3）重點發展中國市場。未來Amer的潛力仍大，長期看好。
本次疫情中，公司採取了積極有效的應對措施，全年發展信心足。一季度公司在加碼電商等舉措下，流水下降幅度有限：預計安踏流水下降20%-30%，FILA下降10%-20%，二季度逐漸恢復，全年有望恢復正增長。
盈利預測與投資評級：考慮到今年疫情影響，我們調整公司盈利預測，公司2020-2022年淨利潤分別為67.46、83.80、101.2億元人民幣，對應EPS為2.43、3.01、3.64元，對應PE分別為21.74、17.5、14.49倍，維持“強烈推薦”評級。
風險提示：消費持續疲軟，品牌培育期過長，海外疫情超預期。
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