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海底撈(06862.HK):護城河深築的火鍋帝國,快速奔跑的核心資產,給予“增持”評級,目標價34.5港元
格隆匯 03-26 09:55

機構:國金證券

評級:增持

目標價:34.5港元

基本結論

火鍋市場:優質賽道格局分散,集中化是大勢所趨。我國餐飲行業一直困於進入壁壘低、人才缺失、標準化不足、融資不暢等問題,呈現高度分散、競爭激烈的狀態。火鍋憑藉標準化易複製、成癮性黏性高、高自由度、強社交性成為餐飲行業優質賽道,目前出現連鎖化、集中化、品牌化趨勢。

海底撈:四川簡陽走出的火鍋龍頭品牌,服務至上與時俱進。海底撈首家門店94年於四川簡陽開業,94-06年是發展初期,服務至上的理念初具雛形,分店擴張初見成效,07-16年進入發展中期,嘗試拓展多元業務,開始走出國門;17年至今,依託服務至上的理念、與時俱進的管理以及持續不斷的科技創新,海底撈商業版圖加速擴張,18年9月26日於港交所掛牌上市。

核心競爭力:高效人才管理;門店放權經營;貫通產業價值鏈。海底撈通過師徒制促進人才裂變,晉升通道清晰,採用多勞多得的計件制薪酬制度激勵員工;下放部分權力鼓勵門店高效靈活運營,集團考核門店表現並評級,根據評級給予獎懲;關聯公司業務涵蓋底料生產、供應鏈服務、裝修設計等方方面面,利於保證品質控制成本,打造壁壘助力長期發展。

門店快速擴張,關鍵指標行業領先。17年之後門店擴張明顯提速,其中一二線以加密為主,三線及以下加強佈局,截至19年末內地門店數約677家,全球門店超過700家。關鍵指標來看,翻枱率受擴張節奏影響略有下降,整體4.8次仍處於行業高水平,客單價穩步提升,同比增速約在3%-4%之間。

大體量、高增長、強營運。海底撈18/19H1營收為169.7/116.9億元,15-18年營收CAGR高達43.4%,19H1同增59.3%,18/19H1淨利潤為16.5/9.1億元,15-18年淨利潤CAGR高達59%,19H1同增40.9%,處於快速增長期。淨利率約10%,經營利潤率約18%,高於行業均值,租金成本極具優勢。

看未來:門店擴張+產業價值鏈深耕。中短期來看,單品牌開店擴張仍有空間,預計20年受疫情影響門店擴張略有放緩,20/21年分別新增181/225家門店。中長期來看,發展動力來源於深耕持續積澱的產業價值鏈,將價值鏈橫向縱向擴寬延伸,由餐飲單品牌企業向綜合性餐飲管理平台轉型。

投資建議:我們預測公司19/20/21年實現營收273.9/318.5/478.4億元,歸母淨利25.5/26.4/41.2億元,對應PE為55/53/34x。雖然20年業績有所承壓,但現已恢復營業,需求有望回暖,預計疫情結束後行業洗牌加速,海底撈作為龍頭企業,有望享有一定品牌估值溢價,PEG在同業中處於有吸引力的位置,按照21年40x市盈率給予目標價34.5港元,上調至增持評級。

風險提示:食安、競爭加劇、擴張不及預期、疫情影響超預期等風險。

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