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華潤啤酒(00291.HK):新冠疫情將大幅拖累公司2020年業績,維持“中性”評級,目標價32.00港元
格隆匯 03-26 09:40

機構:國泰君安

評級:中性

目標價:32.00港元

華潤啤酒(“潤啤”)2019年盈利符合之前盈利預喜。2019年潤啤銷量同比上升1.3%,平均售價同比上升2.8%,共同推動潤啤收入同比增長4.2%至人民幣331.90億元。公司產品結構改善明顯,中高端產品銷量同比增長8.8%,其也推動潤啤毛利率同比上漲1.7個百分點至36.8%。如果扣除一次性的減值和費用,公司調整後的息税前利潤同比增長20.1%至人民幣40.41億元。潤啤2019年股東淨利同比上升34.3%至人民幣13.12億元,而2019年下半年則錄得人民幣5.59億元的股東虧損,主要因為大額一次性減值和費用所致。

?新冠疫情將大幅拖累公司2020年業績。受到疫情影響,潤啤未經審計的收入和息税前利潤在2020年前2月分別同比倒退26%和42%。潤啤的短期表現相當大程度取決於疫情的進展。公司預計其經營將在6月份完全恢復。我們對於啤酒消費在疫情結束後的復甦不是非常樂觀。而且我們擔心競爭將變得更加激烈。長期來看,潤啤的高端化將會繼續,生產效率也將繼續提高,但其已經在估值中反映出來。

因為更低的盈利預測、暗淡的經濟前景以及疫情期間啤酒銷售的脆弱性,我們維持“中性”投資評級並下調目標價至32.00港元,相當於19.0倍/13.6倍/13.0倍2020年/2021年/2022年EV/調整後EBITDA,和52.9倍/28.1倍/24.9倍2020年/2021年/2022年市盈率。

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