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中國聯通(00762.HK):5G業務預計將逐漸成長,給予“買入“評級,目標價6.00港元
格隆匯 03-26 09:38

機構:國泰君安

評級:買入

目標價:6.00港元

中國聯通2019財年股東淨利低於我們的預期。服務收入同比微升0.3%,主要是由於提速降費政策、市場競爭激烈、4G流量紅利的消退和產業互聯網業務的快速發展的混合效應。由於費用的有效管控,股東淨利同比增長11.1%至人民幣113.30億元。由於公司並不再以用户增長為發展目標,因此我們預計2020年的移動用户數將與2019年類似。由於需求強勁,我們預計產業互聯網業務將在2020年繼續實現快速增長,同時產業互聯網業務收入佔服務總收入的比例將超過15%。

我們預計5G將逐步推升移動ARPU。由於4G流量紅利的消退,我們預計2020年4G用户的移動ARPU仍將出現同比下降,但是5G有望推動移動ARPU的復甦。到2020年底,公司的5G用户預計將達到5,000萬。鑑於5G用户ARPU上升和4G用户ARPU下降的混合效應,我們預計2020年的移動ARPU將同比略有下降。我們預計5G網絡“共建共享”策略將在提升網絡質量的同時降低網絡的建設成本以及運維成本。

我們將目標價由8.80港元下調至6.00港元,但將公司的投資評級由“收集”上調至“買入”。我們下調2020-2021財年每股盈利預測25.8%/26.4%。目標價相當於12.8倍、10.4倍和9.6倍2020-2022財年市盈率。

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