中金：維持海螺創業(0586.HK)“跑贏行業”評級 目標價42.50港元
中金公司發佈報告稱，暫時維持海螺創業(0586.HK)2020年和2021年盈利預測不變，待業績會後更多細節再決定是否調整,當前股價對應2020/2021年6.7倍/5.8 倍市盈率。維持“跑贏行業”評級和42.50港元目標價，對應8.7倍2020年市盈率和7.5倍2021年市盈率。
該行稱，海螺創業2019年業績符合預期。2019年公司收入為51.2億元(人民幣，下同)，同比+77%，歸母淨利潤70.0億元，同比+17.6%。剔除聯營公司利潤約60億元(主要為海螺系投資收益)，公司自營環保業務盈利約10億元，同比+47%，也符合預期。
公司新項目密集建設推動垃圾處置業務翻倍表現。板塊收入同比增長115%至37億元，其中建造收入同比+123%。運營方面，公司垃圾進場量和發電量同比+84%和+102%，投產規模提升和噸髮指標不斷改善推動運營收入同比+81%。
固廢業務略低於預期，但毛利率依舊堅挺：板塊收入同比大幅+87%至7.4億元，但處置量和危廢處置價格表現略低於預期。該行認為或因為新項目所在地區價格略低，且仍在成長期，利用率有待進一步提升有關。板塊毛利率維持在較高水平73.4%，在各處置方法中顯示出較強競爭實力。
費用控制得當，體現海螺一貫精細化管理實力。2019年公司確認銷售和管理費用3.7億元(同比+55%)。雖然公司處於環保新項目快速拓展時期，但依舊保持良好的成本管控能力，兩項費用佔收入比重從2018年8.2%繼續下降至7.2%。
資產負債率維持低位，為後續項目拓展提供資金支持。2019年底，公司槓桿率同比小幅上行至22.3%，但大幅低於同業，且該行測算公司資金成本保持在3.3%，有望支撐新項目融資。
該行表示，公司2020年簽約、投產規模或超預期。截至2019年底，公司固廢處置年簽約和投產規模629萬噸、259萬噸，垃圾處置年簽約和投產規模 1160萬噸、378萬噸，均超過此前指引。此外，公司並未放緩新項目獲取步伐，且危廢項目亦有多元化發展嘗試。該行預計，2020 年公司將保持高增速發展(固廢危廢、垃圾處置投產同比增長約 70%、40%)，提前完成原五年計劃目標。
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