思考樂教育(01769.HK)：業績同比增62%，加碼教研及線上投入積聚能量，給予“買入”評級
機構：天風證券
評級：買入
2020年3月18日，思考樂教育發佈2019財年業績公告（2019.1.1-2019.12.31）。
FY19思考樂教育營收7.11億人民幣，同比增長44.3%。具體來看：學業備考課程收入6.96億元（佔比97.89%），同比增加46.4%；初階小學素質教育課程收入0.15億元（佔比2.11%），同比減少12.9%。營收增加主要由於入讀學生刺激輔導課時數增加，主要原因為（i）學習中心總數由2018年底的54個增加至2019年底的100個；（ii）常規課程每個輔導課時平均學費由2018年的77.7元增加至2019年的82.3元。
截至2019年底公司資產負債表中現金及等價物為2.41億元。
FY19主營業務成本4.07億元，同比增長33.01%。
FY19毛利為3.04億元，同比增長62.8%；毛利率為42.7%，同比+4.8pct。毛利率改善主要是由於思考樂教育在2017至2018年開設的學習中心已完成提速準備，進入增長階段。
管理費用1.32億元，同比增長87.67%，管理費用率18.59%，同比增加4.3pct。管理費用增長的主要原因是（i）上市開支增加，及（ii）學習中心網絡擴張和業務增長使得行政人員的薪金及福利增加。
銷售費用0.22億元，同比增長78.87%，銷售費用率3.04%，同比增加0.59pct。該增加主要原因是（i）上市時推廣品牌的廣告和展覽開支增加；及（ii）業務活動相關之酬酢開支增加。
研發費用0.45億元，同比增長45.95%，研發費用率6.36%，同比增加0.08pct。研發費用增加主要是研發人員數量增加導致。
財務費用0.24億元，同比增長647.52%。主要由於採納國際財務報告準則第十六號——租賃導致租賃負債利息開支增加0.21億元。
FY19調後淨利1.36億元，同比增長61.90%；調後淨利率為19.12%，同比減少2.08pct。
維持盈利預測，給予買入評級。
K12培訓資產具備較大成長空間，思考樂坐享大灣區人口紅利，管理團隊極富幹勁，合夥人制激勵到位，目前正處於快速成長階段，增長紅利快速釋放市值彈性較大，我們預計FY20-21年淨利分別為1.69億、2.2億，PE分別為26x、20x。
風險提示：開點速度不及預期，招生不及預期。
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