《业绩前瞻》券商对工行(01398.HK)去年可多赚5% 关注存款及最新业务趋势
工商银行(01398.HK)将於本周五(27日)公布去年业绩，本网综合12间券商预测，工商银行2019年纯利介乎3,050.63亿至3,166.16亿元人民币，较2018年纯利2,976.76亿元人民币，按年增加2.5%至6.4%。中位数为3,124.58亿元人民币，按年增加5%。
本网综合8间券商预测工行2019年每股股息介乎0.26元至0.27元人民币，较2018年每股股息0.24507元人民币，按年增加3.8%至7.7%，中位数为0.261元人民币，按年增加4.2%。由於新冠疫情蔓延冲击全球及内地经济，投资者将聚焦工行管理层给予的最新前景指引、净利息收益率趋势、今年存款、贷款及不良贷款等变化等预测。
【料多赚半成 聚焦新指引】
摩根大通上周五发表报告表示，估计工行去年可按年多赚5.2%至3,13208亿人民币，料净利息收入可按年升6%至6,044.35亿人民币，料净息利收益率按年收窄6个基点至2.24%，估计其去年非利息收入可按年升12%至1,713.23亿人民币，其中手续费收入亦按年升10%，料其去年成本与收入比率跌19个基点至26.6%，料股本回报率按年跌81个基点至12.44%。
该行预测工行去年不良贷款比率按年跌7个基点至1.45%，料一级资本充足率按年升64个基点至14.09%。该行料工行去年存款按年升10%至23.59万亿人民币，估计贷款按年升9%至16.76万亿人币。摩根大通料投资者将关注工行的净息差收窄及存款增长趋势问题。基於新冠疫情蔓延冲击全球及内地经济，投资者将聚焦农行管理层给予的最新前景指引。
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本网综合12间券商预测工行2019年纯利介乎3,050.63亿至3,166.16亿元人民币，较2018年纯利2,976.76亿元人民币，按年增加2.5%至6.4%，中位数为3,124.58亿元人民币，按年增加5%。
券商│2019年纯利预测(人民币)│按年变幅
星展│3,166.16亿元│+6.4%
摩根士丹利│3,138.72亿元│+5.4%
中信证券│3,132.15亿元│+5.2%
摩根大通│3,132.08亿元│+5.2%
招银国际│3,127.48亿元│+5.1%
野村│3,126.46亿元│+5%
中金│3,122.69亿元│+4.9%
里昂│3,121.54亿元│+4.9%
中银国际│3,107.5亿元│+4.4%
建银国际│3,082亿元│+3.5%
大华继显│3,058.83亿元│+2.8%
汇丰环球研究│3,050.63亿元│+2.5%
按工行2018年纯利2,976.76亿元人民币推算
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本网综合8间券商预测工行2019年每股股息介乎0.26元至0.27元人民币，较2018年每股股息0.24507元人民币，按年增加3.8%至7.7%，中位数为0.261元人民币，按年增加4.2%。
券商│2019年每股股息预测(人民币)│按年变幅
瑞信│0.27元│+7.7%
大和│0.264元│+5.3%
里昂│0.263元│+4.9%
中银国际│0.262元│+4.5%
摩根大通│0.26元│+3.8%
招银国际│0.26元│+3.8%
汇丰环球研究│0.26元│+3.8%
中金│0.26元│+3.8%
按工行2018年每股股息0.2506元人民币推算
(fc/w)
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