思考乐教育(01769.HK)：业绩同比增62%，加码教研及线上投入积聚能量，给予“买入”评级
机构：天风证券
评级：买入
2020年3月18日，思考乐教育发布2019财年业绩公告（2019.1.1-2019.12.31）。
FY19思考乐教育营收7.11亿人民币，同比增长44.3%。具体来看：学业备考课程收入6.96亿元（占比97.89%），同比增加46.4%；初阶小学素质教育课程收入0.15亿元（占比2.11%），同比减少12.9%。营收增加主要由于入读学生刺激辅导课时数增加，主要原因为（i）学习中心总数由2018年底的54个增加至2019年底的100个；（ii）常规课程每个辅导课时平均学费由2018年的77.7元增加至2019年的82.3元。
截至2019年底公司资产负债表中现金及等价物为2.41亿元。
FY19主营业务成本4.07亿元，同比增长33.01%。
FY19毛利为3.04亿元，同比增长62.8%；毛利率为42.7%，同比+4.8pct。毛利率改善主要是由于思考乐教育在2017至2018年开设的学习中心已完成提速准备，进入增长阶段。
管理费用1.32亿元，同比增长87.67%，管理费用率18.59%，同比增加4.3pct。管理费用增长的主要原因是（i）上市开支增加，及（ii）学习中心网络扩张和业务增长使得行政人员的薪金及福利增加。
销售费用0.22亿元，同比增长78.87%，销售费用率3.04%，同比增加0.59pct。该增加主要原因是（i）上市时推广品牌的广告和展览开支增加；及（ii）业务活动相关之酬酢开支增加。
研发费用0.45亿元，同比增长45.95%，研发费用率6.36%，同比增加0.08pct。研发费用增加主要是研发人员数量增加导致。
财务费用0.24亿元，同比增长647.52%。主要由于采纳国际财务报告准则第十六号——租赁导致租赁负债利息开支增加0.21亿元。
FY19调后净利1.36亿元，同比增长61.90%；调后净利率为19.12%，同比减少2.08pct。
维持盈利预测，给予买入评级。
K12培训资产具备较大成长空间，思考乐坐享大湾区人口红利，管理团队极富干劲，合伙人制激励到位，目前正处于快速成长阶段，增长红利快速释放市值弹性较大，我们预计FY20-21年净利分别为1.69亿、2.2亿，PE分别为26x、20x。
风险提示：开点速度不及预期，招生不及预期。
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