一文综合大行於中电信(00728.HK)公布业绩後最新目标价及观点
中电信(00728.HK)今早股价造好逾2%，该公司昨日(24日)中午收市後公布去年业绩，纯利按年跌3.3%至205.17亿元人民币，撇除中国铁塔(00788.HK)上市一次性税後收益，中电信去年纯利按年升2%。期内每股基本盈利0.25元人民币。派末期息0.125港元，与上年同期相同。期内EBITDA按年增12.5%至1,172.15亿元人民币，EBITDA率为32.8%，经营收入按年跌0.4%至3,757.34亿元人民币。去年中电信服务收入按年升2%，当中移动服务收入按年增4.7%，固网服务收入跌0.4%。
中电信去年移动用户净增3,257万户，用户规模约为3.36亿户，4G用户渗透率达83.8%，期内移动业务(每用户平均收入)ARPU按年下跌9.3%至45.8元人民币，当中4G的ARPU下跌11.3%至49.5元人民币。4G用户月均流量(DOU)升43.6%至7.9GB。去年资本开支达775.57亿元人民币，估计今年将上升9.6%至850亿元人民币，当5G资本开支为453亿元人民币。而公司今年2月5G套餐用户达1,073万户。
【去年业绩逊 5G成关键】
瑞银发表报告表示，虽然中电信去年第四季业绩表现差过同业，但相信其今年会有稳健表现，主因公司2月其5G套餐用户达1,000万户(对比中移动(00941.HK)1,500万户)，而且其目标全年5G用户量净增6,000至8,000万户，惟料今年其息税折旧摊销前利润率在5G及资讯科技业务投资增加下会出现下跌，但今年较少资产撤销及折旧与摊销微增会有所缓冲。
摩根大通下调中电信目标价至4.3元，维持「增持」评级。该行指中电信计划今年增加资本开支12%，5G基站新增目标不少於50万个，有关数字较为克制及小於市场预期。公司的5G订阅户目标及ARPU数字均令人鼓舞，近期疫情影响的忧虑，在公司管理层对今年的目标中得以纾缓。该行亦指公司今年派息指引稳定。
里昂指中电信去年第四季业绩令人失望，下调该股目标价，由3.5元降至2.6港元，投资评级亦由「跑赢大市」降为「跑输大市」。该行又指，中电信目标5G用户为6,000万至8,000万户，与中移动相若，电讯市场竞争或在今年再度加剧，联通可能带头减价。
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本网最新综合11间券商对其投资评级及目标价，1间券商上调投资评级，6间券商下调目标价，9间给予「买入」或「增持」大市评级：
券商│投资评级│目标价(港元)
中银国际│买入│4.85元->4.75元
摩根大通│增持│4.6元->4.3元
瑞银│买入│4.25元->3.95元
花旗│买入│4.3元->3.9元
高盛│买入│3.9元
汇丰环球研究│买入│4.4元->3.6元
摩根士丹利│增持│3.6元
野村│中性│3.5元
杰富瑞│买入│3.22元->3.23元
中金│中性│3.6元->3元
里昂│跑输大市->跑赢大市│3.5元->2.6元
券商│观点
中银国际│派息吸引为增长及下行保障提供平衡
摩根大通│5G指引正面，重申对2020年业务展望
瑞银│去年第四季表现逊同业，今年展望乐观
花旗│盈利略逊预期，移动业务持续扩大市占
高盛│业绩符预期
汇丰环球研究│料移动业务良好势头延续至2020年
摩根士丹利│5G展望乐观
野村│业绩略逊预期，料将由5G业务拯救
杰富瑞│市场对资本开支过於忧虑，市占正在增长
中金│5G机会与压力并存
里昂│业绩令人失望
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