中國飛鶴(06186.HK)：盈利大幅增長，疫情是塊試金石，給予“買入”評級，目標價16.5港元
機構：國盛證券
評級：買入
目標價：16.5港元
盈利大幅增長超預期，疫情之下Q1收入預期增長強勁。受超高端星飛帆和臻稚有機產品系列驅動，公司2019年收入達137億，同比+32%；經營效率持續提升，歸母淨利潤39億，大幅增長76%。公司現金流健康，2019年經營現金流入52億元，在手現金74億。董事會建議每股派息0.19港元，分紅率為40%，公司預計未來分紅率不低於30%。公司經受住新冠疫情挑戰，管理層預估Q1收入增長不低於30%，穩步前行。
產品高端化驅動收入增長、毛利率提升，規模經濟促費用率降低。公司2019年高端嬰配粉/普通嬰配粉/其他乳製品/營養補充品收入分別為94.1/31.3/6.1/5.8億元，同比增長41.4%/23.0%/10.0%/-10.0%，佔比68.6%/22.8%/4.4%/4.2%，YoY變動4.5/-1.7/-0.9/-2pct。由於高端嬰配粉的毛利率高達75.9%，遠高於普通嬰配奶粉62%，產品結構升級推動公司毛利率同比提升2.5個pct至70%。受益於規模效應及良好的費效比控制，銷售費用率28%，YoY-7.2pct。由於員工成本增加和IPO開支影響，行政費用率同比上升1.1pct至6.7%。淨利潤率達到28.7%，較2018年21.6%和2017年19.7%大幅攀升，未來有望保持在30%水平。
疫情加速行業集中度提升，公司快速反應與卓越執行力助其強化龍頭優勢、加速提升市佔率。奶粉行業需求端較為剛性，新冠疫情對供給端的原材料供應、生產、運輸、線下銷售服務都帶來嚴峻挑戰，不具備供應鏈保障能力和線下服務能力的中小品牌受到明顯衝擊，行業集中度將進一步向頭部公司集中。作為行業龍頭，公司面對疫情迅速反應，在確保生產運輸的高效運行的同時，率先啟動送貨上門、營銷線下轉線上等舉措，尤其是率先開啟直播帶貨等線上活動有力推動終端銷售，不僅實現當季良好收入表現，疫情間所展現的強大執行力和快速反應能力將進一步贏得渠道和客户的認可和信賴，增強未來推動力。此外，公司在疫情期間捐贈1億現金和1億金額物資進一步提升公司品牌形象，獲得良好評價。
盈利預測：我們預計公司2020-2022年歸母淨利潤為53.1/67.6/81.9億元，同比增長34.8%/27.4%/21.1%。當前股價對應18.8/14.7/12.2倍PE。在國產奶粉市佔率強勢提升的背景下，考慮到飛鶴在中國嬰幼兒奶粉市場的龍頭地位、強大的綜合競爭力及良好成長性，我們給予公司目標價16.5港元，對應25倍2020年PE，首次覆蓋，予以“買入”評級。
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