《業績前瞻》券商料中行(03988.HK)去年可按年多賺逾4% 聚焦淨息差及新指引
中國銀行(03988.HK)將於本周五(27日)公布去年業績，本網綜綜合5間券商預測，中行2019年純利預測料介乎1,827億至1,892.24億元人民幣，較2018年1,800.86億人民幣，按年增加1.5%至5.1%，中位數為1,881.7億人民幣，按年增加4.5%。基於新冠疫情蔓延衝擊全球及內地經濟，投資者將聚焦中行管理層給予的最新前景指引、淨利息收益率趨勢、今年存款、貸款及不良貸款等變化等預測。
綜合7間券商預測，中行2019年每股盈利預測料介乎0.187至0.194元人民幣，較2018年0.184元人民幣，按年增加1.6%至5.4%，中位數為0.19元人民幣，按年增加3.3%。
【聚焦新指引 關注淨息差】
摩根大通上周五發表報告表示，估計中行去年可按年多賺4.6至1,883.42億人民幣，料淨利息收入可按年升4%至3,740.93億人民幣，料息利收益率按年收窄7個基點至1.84%，估計其去年非利息收入可按年升22%至1,764.62億人民幣，料其去年成本與收入比率升16個基點至35.3%，料股本回報率按年跌62個基點至11%。
該行預測建行去年不良貸款比率按年跌1個基點至1.4%，料一級資本充足率(Tier 1 Ratio)按年升72個基點至12.99%。該行料建行去年存款按年升8%至16.11萬億人民幣，估計貸款按年升10%至13萬億人幣。摩根大通料投資者將關注中行的淨息差收窄問題，同時香港社會事件或對該行海外業務造成拖累。
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綜合5間券商預測，中行2019年純利預測料介乎1,827億至1,892.24億元人民幣，較2018年1,800.86億人民幣，按年增加1.5%至5.1%，中位數為1,881.7億人民幣，按年增加4.5%。
券商│2019年純利預測(人民幣)│按年變幅
招銀國際│1,892.24億元│+5.1%
摩根大通│1,883.42億元│+4.6%
中金│1,881.7億元│+4.5%
星展│1,867.31億元│+3.7%
建銀國際│1,827億元│+1.5%
按中行2018年純利1,800.86億元人民幣推算
綜合7間券商預測，中行2019年每股盈利預測料介乎0.187至0.194元人民幣，較2018年0.184元人民幣，按年增加1.6%至5.4%，中位數為0.19元人民幣，按年增加3.3%。
券商│2019年每股股息(人民幣)│按年變幅
大和│0.194元│+5.4%
摩根大通│0.19元│+3.3%
瑞信│0.19元│+3.3%
匯豐環球研究│0.19元│+3.3%
招銀國際│0.19元│+3.3%
中金│0.19元│+3.3%
美銀證券│0.187元│+1.6%
按中行2018年每股股息0.184元人民幣推算
(fc/w)
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