中升控股(00881.HK)：“品牌+區域“契合消費升級，龐大售後降低業績波動風險，維持“買入”評級，目標價34.8港元
機構：招商證券
評級：買入
目標價：34.8港元
■淨利潤增長23.8%超預期，新車及售後逆勢增長，費用控制出色
■經營策略高度契合消費升級，高利潤、龐大的售後降低業績波動風險
■下調目標價至34.8港元，相當於15.1xFY20EP/E，低谷期逢低買入
淨利潤增速超預期，新車及售後業務穩健增長
公司2019年淨利潤同比增長23.8%至45億元人民幣，比我們的預測/市場預期高4.8%/3.7%；收入同比增長15.1%至1,240億元人民幣。業績看點：1）豪華車表現出色。新車銷量同比增長10.6%（vs.行業-8.2%）至45.6萬台，源於門店數淨增42家及同店銷量提升5%。豪華品牌同比強勁增長18.4%（vs.豪華車行業+12%），佔比50%創新高，得益於奔馳和雷克薩斯強週期。新車銷售收入增長13.9%，豪華/中高端車ASP分別下降2%/增長5%。新車毛利率同比降0.4ppt至2.7%；2）售後業務。收入同比增長22.9%至178億元人民幣，得益於豪華品牌台次佔比提升至53%；售後毛利率同比降0.5ppt至48.2%，下半年環比降1.4ppt至47.6%，全年售後毛利佔比升至74.9%，驅動綜合毛利率回升0.1ppt至9.3%；3）汽車金融。滲透率創新高，同比上升3.4ppt至約53%；4）逆風下穩健經營。經營現金流增長超2倍至78億元人民幣，銷售/管理/財務費用率合計降0.1ppt至6.7%，因償還了多筆貸款，有息負債率下降8ppt至62%，存貨週轉天數減少0.8天。
豪華車疫情後恢復快，“品牌+區域”契合消費升級
1）疫情影響。一季度汽車銷售受疫情短期衝擊，當前客流明顯回升，預計持續改善。疫情對高收入羣體消費能力影響小，限購城市有望增加車牌，預計豪華車和日系在疫情後快速恢復；2）“品牌+區域”。主力品牌奔馳、雷克薩斯和豐田產品競爭力強，受行業逆風影響小。公司75%網點在一、二線城市，受益富裕人羣消費升級。公司經銷店增加13%，聚焦需求旺盛的華東和華南地區，為未來幾年持續發展注入動力。2019年豪華車行業滲透率僅11%，上升空間大，公司“品牌+區域”的策略具有持續競爭優勢。
龐大售後降低業績波動風險，低谷期長線買入
公司有業內規模最大的售後業務，高盈利、波動小的售後貢獻75%的毛利潤。公司過去5年新車銷售平均年增長17%，已形成龐大客户基盤，我們預計今年售後保持雙位數增長，大大降低公司業績波動風險。小幅下調2020-21E淨利潤預測3.3%/0.1%，比一致預期低2%/0%，反映疫情對公司經營活動衝擊。下調目標價4.7%至34.8港元（前次36.5港元），相當於15.1xFY20EP/E（估值倍數維持）。公司是豪華車產業鏈最佳投資標的，品牌、渠道和管理三大核心競爭優勢突出，業績低谷期是長線買入機會。
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