《業績前瞻》券商料建行(00939.HK)去年純利按年升5% 關注最新前景指引
建設銀行(00939.HK)將於本周五(27日)公布去年業績，本網綜合11間券商顯示，預期建行2019年純利介乎2,618.64億元至2,714.07億人民幣，較2018年2,547.55億人民幣，按年上升2.8%至6.6%，中位數為2,679.1億元，按年升5.2%。基於新冠疫情蔓延衝擊全球及內地經濟，投資者將聚焦農行管理層給予的最新前景指引，今年存款、貸款及不良貸款等變化等預測。
綜合5間券商顯示，預期建行2019年每股股息預測介乎0.32元至0.324元人民幣，較2018年0.306元人民幣，按年上升4.6%至5.9%，中位數為0.32元，按年升4.6%。
【關注淨息差 存款增長遜】
摩根大通估計，建行去年將按年多賺5.4%至2,683.66億人民幣，料淨息利收入按年升6%至5,155.16億人民幣，估計淨利息收益率按年將收窄6個基點至2.25%，料非利息收入按年增長14%至1,675.78億人民幣，料成本收入比率升54個基點至28.1%，估計其去年股本回報率按年跌73個基點至12.8%。
該行預測建行去年不良貸款比率按年跌1個基點至1.45%，料核心一級資本充足率按年升7個基點至13.9%，料一級資本充足率(Tier 1 Ratio)按年升29個基點至14.71%。該行料建行去年存款按年升9%至18.58萬億人民幣，估計貸款按年升10%至15.12萬億人幣。
摩通指出，相信投資者將關注建行淨息差收窄的情況，因市場報價貸款利率(LPR)回落將進一步損及建行的毛利表現；市場亦會關注建行的存款增長，因料建行存款增長在四大國有商銀中的增長低於同業平均水平(按其2019年第二季及第三季而言)。
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本網綜合11間券商顯示，預期建行2019年純利介乎2,618.64億元至2,714.07億人民幣，較2018年2,547.55億人民幣，按年上升2.8%至6.6%，中位數為2,679.1億元，按年升5.2%。
券商│2019年純利預測(人民幣)│按年變幅
大華繼顯│2,714.07億元│+6.6%
招銀國際│2,703.45億元│+6.2%
高盛│2,692.91億元│+5.7%
中銀國際│2,690.03億元│+5.6%
中信証券│2,685.59億元│+5.5%
摩根大通│2,683.66億元│+5.4%
摩根士丹利│2,679.1億元│+5.2%
中金│2,677.61億元│+5.1%
海通國際│2,676.58億元│+5.1%
工銀國際│2,662.91億元│+4.6%
匯豐環球研究│2,618.64億元│+2.8%
按建行2018年純利2,546.55億元人民幣推算
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綜合5間券商顯示，預期建行2019年每股股息預測介乎0.32元至0.324元人民幣，較2018年0.306元人民幣，按年上升4.6%至5.9%，中位數為0.32元，按年升4.6%。
券商│2019年每股股息預測(人民幣)│按年變幅
中銀國際│0.324元│+5.9%
里昂│0.322元│+5.2%
瑞信│0.32元│+4.6%
匯豐環球研究│0.32元│+4.6%
中金│0.32元│+4.6%
按建行2018年每股股息0.306元人民幣推算
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