《大行报告》高盛料经济衰退引发进一步降亚企盈测 荐受惠「宅在家」主题股份
高盛发表亚太区策略报告,基於全球经济衰退的忧虑,该行近月已四度下调亚太区市场盈利预测,随着宏观经济环境的恶化,料全球经济衰退已成为该行的基本情境预测,并已下调包括美国、欧洲、中国及大部份亚太区国家,而相关国家已采取进取性的支持经济政策包括减息,该行亦料布兰特油价於今年第二季每桶平均20美元(此前预测为30美元),相信此会触发进一步下调亚太区市场企业的盈利预测。
该行指,调低对亚太区市场企业2020年盈利预测,由原来升1%下修至跌14%,市场同业自1月17日以来已调低盈利预测6个百分点,该行料市场将会持续进一步调低盈利预测。该行表示,调低对中国市场企业今年盈利预测6个百分点至负6%、降韩国企业今年盈利预测42个百分点至负20%。
高盛表示,决定下调MSCI亚太区(撇除日本)指数未来12个月目标,由原来510点降至475点,相当预测市盈率13.5倍。该行予MSCI中国指数未来12个月目标为84点,料今明两年股盈预测分别按年跌6%及升18%,予MSCI香港指数未来12个月目标为14,600点,料今明两年股盈预测分别按年跌25%及升24%。
该行表示,目前投资主题可关注稳定增长、受惠政策、具稳固派息的份,同时可留意资产负债表强劲、受惠「宅在家」主题股份。
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