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《大行報告》高盛料經濟衰退引發進一步降亞企盈測 薦受惠「宅在家」主題股份
阿思達克 03-23 11:28
高盛發表亞太區策略報告,基於全球經濟衰退的憂慮,該行近月已四度下調亞太區市場盈利預測,隨著宏觀經濟環境的惡化,料全球經濟衰退已成為該行的基本情境預測,並已下調包括美國、歐洲、中國及大部份亞太區國家,而相關國家已採取進取性的支持經濟政策包括減息,該行亦料布蘭特油價於今年第二季每桶平均20美元(此前預測為30美元),相信此會觸發進一步下調亞太區市場企業的盈利預測。

該行指,調低對亞太區市場企業2020年盈利預測,由原來升1%下修至跌14%,市場同業自1月17日以來已調低盈利預測6個百分點,該行料市場將會持續進一步調低盈利預測。該行表示,調低對中國市場企業今年盈利預測6個百分點至負6%、降韓國企業今年盈利預測42個百分點至負20%。

高盛表示,決定下調MSCI亞太區(撇除日本)指數未來12個月目標,由原來510點降至475點,相當預測市盈率13.5倍。該行予MSCI中國指數未來12個月目標為84點,料今明兩年股盈預測分別按年跌6%及升18%,予MSCI香港指數未來12個月目標為14,600點,料今明兩年股盈預測分別按年跌25%及升24%。

該行表示,目前投資主題可關注穩定增長、受惠政策、具穩固派息的份,同時可留意資產負債表強勁、受惠「宅在家」主題股份。

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