《大行報告》大和:長實(01113.HK)經常性業務現金流壯大 支持派息增加
大和發表報告指,長實集團(01113.HK)2019年度的基礎盈利按年增長19%至287.29億元,主要是受到物業銷售利潤大增78%所帶動。雖然未來環境存在不確定性及挑戰,但公司派息仍按年增加10.5%,反映集團有信心應對未來的挑戰,指其資產負債表強勁,可抵禦外部挑戰環境。
該行指,長實集團在過去五年一直通過香港及內地的物業資產獲利,將它們投入業務以產生經常性收入,認為這策略一直運作良好,估計其經常性業務的經營現金流現時已超出每股5元,而這是其在具有挑戰性環境中,仍能增加派息的原因。
大和表示,疫情爆發打亂物業市場的建築及預售活動,相信長實集團旗下的波老道豪宅項目需要待市場情緒穩定才推出,而其約293億元未入帳合同銷售理應能夠提供一定的緩衝。在考慮到物業銷售及項目完工進度的一些影響,該行將公司2020至2021年的盈利預測下調4至6%。
該行注意到長實自2016年以來已累斥約90億元回購股份,因此若在未來數月恢復股份回購行動,並不會感到驚訝,重申其「買入」投資評級,但將目標價由原來的85.2元下調至68.3元,相當今年每股資產淨值折讓30%。
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