一文綜合大行於長和(00001.HK)公布業績後最新觀點、評級及目標價
長和(00001.HK)今早股價曾抽升6.6%一度高見48.55元。長和昨日收市後公布去年業績，以IFRS 16後基準計，純利按年增長2.1%至398.3億元，符合早前本網綜合10間券商預測之介乎380億元至414.91億元區間(中位數為395億元)，每股盈利10.33元。公司宣派末期股息每股2.3元，與2018年相同，連同中期股息，全年派息3.17元。
長和去年EBITDA總額按年增長19.8%至1,360.49億元，收益總額倒退3%至4,398.56億元，其中港口及相關服務收入按年增長1%至353.75億元，零售收入持平於1,692.25億元，基建收入按年倒退21%至511.91億元。另外赫斯基能源收入按年倒退12%至476.18億元。長和主席李澤鉅指，在當前市場充斥各種不利因素之逆境下，集團來年之業務難免受到波及，幸而集團眾多核心分部中，電訊業務面臨影響將相對較少。若無其他不可預見之情況，此業務之展望將維持正面。李澤鉅稱，即使油價在最差的情況下，長和系仍「承受得起有餘」，不會太影響集團的現金流。
【業績符預期 利淡已反映】
高盛表示，長和去年業績符合該行及市場預期，撇除赫斯基能源外其他業務穩定，指長和去年每股全年派息3.17元，相當派息比率穩定在31%水平，認為新冠疫情影響屬短暫，維持其列於「確信買入」名單，指股價調整已過度。
瑞信認為，長和去年業績符預期，3歐洲EBIT按年升14%屬健康水平，指其現價較每股資產淨值折讓50%、市盈率僅4.4倍，相信估值已反映宏觀不明朗因素，重申「跑贏大市」投資評級及目標價90元。
摩根大通指，長和去年基本盈利錄399億元按年升2%，較該行預期高5%，受集裝箱碼頭、零售業務優於預期所帶動，料公司今年盈利可大致保持穩定，包括零售、基建及集裝箱碼頭業務。該行指，長和近期股價大幅調整後，認為市場過度反映受到油價、或歐元及英鎊匯價波動所影響，該行料假設油價維持現水平，料對長和今年純利影響約5.6%；而長和旗下英國及歐洲業務相當總體EBITDA各33%及22%，若歐元及英鎊匯價每貶值10%，料影響長和純利分別為2%及3%。
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本網綜合6間券商列出對長和公布業績後最新投資評級、目標價及觀點：
券商│投資評級│目標價(港元)
瑞銀│買入(正在評估)│98元(正在評估)
瑞信│跑贏大市│90元
摩根大通│增持│87元
摩根士丹利│增持│85元
高盛│買入(「確信買入」名單)│82元
美銀證券│買入│78元
券商│觀點
瑞銀│業績符預期，聚焦經營自由現金流
瑞信│去年下半年業績符預期，負面因素已反映
摩根大通│認為受歐元及英鎊匯價影響不大，料今年盈利穩定
摩根士丹利│多元化業務可支撐持續派息
高盛│料疫情響短暫，指股價調整已過度
美銀證券│資產負債表強勁，指股息回報達7厘
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