標普:內地大油企暫能抵擋油價挫跌影響 將削減支出
評級機構標普發表報告認為,內地三大油企到目前為止的信用狀況強健,足以抵擋原油價格驟跌的影響。不過,新冠肺炎疫情致使預測石油需求變得尤為困難。石油輸出國組織(OPEC)與俄羅斯增加原油供應的決定平添了政治風險,帶來更多的不確定性。若油價挫跌的情況持續,該機構可能重新評估三大油企的評級。
標普全球評級分析師黃曉丹表示,受助於削減成本和之前油價上漲,內地大型能源企業的信用指標自2014-2016年上一輪油價下跌週期以來在持續改善。不過,OPEC與俄羅斯未能就減產達成協議,而油市恰恰要在新冠疫情大流行衝擊石油需求之際應對原油供應的大幅上升。石油價格暴跌。因此將2020年餘下時間內布蘭特原油的預期價格從每桶60美元下調至40美元。
標普同時將2021年的預期價格僅下調5美元至每桶50美元,因預計亦或石油生產和出口大國將就減產達成一致,亦或油價持續低迷會將部分美國頁巖油生產商擠出市場。與此同時,全球石油需求將隨新冠疫情消退而回升。
報告認為,內地三大油企將在市況艱難之際削減支出,標普的預測將2020年的運營成本較2019年下降3%-5%納入考量。資源税等成本更多地與收入掛勾,而收入將隨原油價格下跌而下降。按照每桶40美元的價格,預計中國石油(0857.HK)和中海油(0883.HK)將能盈利,而中國石化(0386.HK)的上游業務將遭遇虧損。
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