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瑞銀顏湄之:料中國將繼續定向降準 內銀息差及資產質素受壓
阿思達克 03-17 11:41
瑞銀投資研究部大中華金融行業研究主管顏湄之於電話會議上表示,今年內銀息差有壓力,她預計今年存款準備金率下調100點子,政府亦將繼續進行定向降準。另外原本預計中期借貸便利(MLF)利率下降20點子,於目前情況下料貸款市場報價利率(LPR)料今年將下降40點子。顏湄之指,LPR每下降100點子,對內銀息差的負面影響介乎13點子至20點子。

該行預計今年中國經濟增長幅度降至4.8%,明年則回升至6.2%。於有關估算下,料今年不良資產將增加3.45萬億元人民幣(下同),不良貸款率將升至2%水平,內銀不良貸款覆蓋率將自現時的180%水平跌至157%。若經濟情況較為不利,料不良貸款將增加5萬億元,不良貸款覆蓋率則將進一步下跌至129%水平。

顏湄之並指,由於是次較受疫情衝擊為小微企、中小企及個人,料區域性銀行及進行零售業務較多的銀行將首當其衝。大型銀行的緩衝則相對較大,由於國家將支持其大型企業客戶,其業務急跌的機會亦較小。

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