澳優(1717.HK)：海外生產運輸未受影響，Q1有望持續向上，維持“買入”評級
機構：國金證券
評級：買入
事件簡述
自 3 月以來，海外疫情迅速爆發，引發市場恐慌情緒。而澳優由於工廠大 多位於海外，上週股價受市場情緒影響回調較多，3 月 9 日至 13 日，澳優 股價下跌達 15.5%。
事件點評
海外疫情引發市場恐慌，澳優海外生產、運輸仍照常進行。公司反饋，海 外工廠生產一切照常進行，其中公司主要工廠位於荷蘭北面（荷蘭工廠主 要生產羊奶粉佳貝艾特以及高端牛奶粉海普諾凱系列），距離荷蘭疫情爆發 區域非常遠，因此幾乎未受影響。在運輸方面，公司於 18 年底開通“中歐 班列”（從荷蘭直達國內的鐵路運輸），是國家一帶一路重點扶持項目，因 此特殊時期仍然正常開通，海外運輸正常進行。當前來看，澳優供應鏈並 未受海外疫情影響，生產、運輸照常進行，市場無需擔憂。
疫情下及時調整銷售模式，一季度業績有望持續向上。渠道反饋，疫情下 門店陸續關店，但由於公司及時轉變為線上營銷模式，疊加消費者持續囤 貨行為，我們認為影響較為有限。同時公司也在不斷協助終端進行物流配 送，整體供應鏈照常進行。我們認為，公司門店不斷優化，牛羊奶粉有望 繼續維持高增，同時營養品在經歷 2019 年調整後有望恢復增長，基本面有 望持續向上。公司此前公佈全年業績指引，雖然有疫情擾動以及更加激烈 的行業競爭，但公司規劃全年整體收入增速不低於 20%，其中牛奶粉目標 增速 20-25%，羊奶粉目標增速 25-30%，仍然較為積極。根據我們當前跟 蹤來看，目前公司線上增速較高，帶動整體收入增長，銷售模式調整取得 較好的效果，一季度有望達成公司全年目標增速。當前對應 2020 年估值僅 為 14 倍，較前期已處於低位，建議重點關注。
盈利預測
我們維持盈利預測：預計 19-21 年收入分別實現 67.2/83.5/102.9 億元，分 別同比+24.7%/24.3%/23.3%；歸母淨利潤分別實現 8.7/11.7/15.6 億元， 分別同比+36.6%/35.0%/33.3%；EPS 分別為 0.54/0.73/0.97 元，對應 PE 分別為 18X/14X/10X，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示
需求下滑/行業競爭加劇/羊奶粉增長不達預期/海外疫情超預期/食品安全
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