瑞银财管:标指创最快跌入熊市记录 料恐慌和经济活动受挫将持续恶化至3月底
瑞银财富管理全球首席投资总监Mark Haefele表示,全球股市昨日(12日)暴跌,因投资者预期新冠疫情对经济影响的程度和持续时间将比预期更糟,其中美股剧跌9.5%,创下1987年黑色星期一以来最重跌幅。欧洲斯托克600指数也创下13.9%的跌幅纪录,意大利富时MIB指数暴泻16.9%,MSCI新兴市场指数也下跌10%。而标普500指数以全日低点收市,自2月19日的高点累计回跌26.6%,指数只花16天的时间就跌入熊市,创下史上最快记录。
该行指,在中国、新加坡、香港和韩国见到一些正面迹象,表明疫情可透过时间和强力防控措施得到控制。意大利已开始采取大范围的封锁措施,然而,鉴於病毒潜伏期和确诊时间滞後,措施是否有效至少需要两个星期之後才能作出评估。因此,随着美国及欧洲疫情蔓延,预期公众恐慌和经济活动受挫的情况将持续恶化至3月底。
瑞银又提到,在该行基准情景中(中国疫情持续受控且发达市场在第二季得到控制),预期年底前市场价位将较目前大幅反弹。但市场涨势要能维持需要有关条件,包括发达市场疫情获得控制的确切证据;对经济「净」影响明朗;及全球政策联手发力。
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