新高教集團 (2001 HK)：長期前景良好，當前估值吸引力高，維持“買入”評級，目標價4.0港元
機構：招商證券國際
評級：買入
目標價：4.0港元
■近期股價下跌創歷史新低，但盈利持續增長前景不變。
■我們預計19和20財年核心淨利潤增速將達38%和33%，依靠內生驅動
■鑑於資產負債表將在2020年走強，目前股價處於低估狀態
過去不利因素致使目前價值低估
年初至今，新高教的股價下跌了21%（相比之下同業平均股價上漲3%），目前19/20財年的前瞻市盈率分別為9倍/7倍。新高教的股價創歷史新低，甚至低於2019年8月，教育政策的變化充滿很大不確定性時的水平。我們認為，新高教的股價在2019年一直受到壓力，原因來自於幾方面：1）賣空報告，但我們認為該報告後續被證不實;2）資產負債表負債率提高導致併購能力有限;3）收購新疆學校的執行問題。
21財年或東山再起
我們預計新高教19和20財年的核心盈利增長將分別達到38%和33%（19年中期的盈利同比增長34%）。我們預測在沒有收購方案的情況下，新高教的淨債務/權益比率將從18財年的38%和19財年的9%，增長到20財年和21財年的11%和24%的淨現金/權益比率。新疆訴訟一審已經通過，新高教勝訴，但我們認為另一方可能會提起上訴，這可能會延遲新高教對其1.17億元人民幣的剩餘資金的收回，但我們認為這項訴訟和資金回收很可能在2020年底前解決。總體而言，我們認為新高教過去的困擾將在2020年底之前結束，從而使2021年成為東山再起的元年。短期內，我們認為新高教是近期擴招政策的受益者。
維持買入評級，估值大大低於同業
新高教股價表現弱於我們的預期。目前20/21財年的市盈率分別為7倍/6倍，而同行的平均水平是12倍/11倍。即使我們將同行業公司劃分為“第一梯隊”和“非第一梯隊”，“非第一梯隊”公司估值的平均值也為11倍/9倍。換句話説，新高教的估值較可比公司低36%/38%。基於富有吸引力的估值，我們維持對新高教的買入評級，維持盈利預測和目標價不變。
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