《大行報告》大摩降國泰(00293.HK)評級至「減持」指四成燃油按每桶64美元作對沖
摩根士丹利發表報告指,將國泰航空(00293.HK)評級由「與大市同步」降至「減持」,下調對其目標價27%,由12.2元降至8.9元,指新冠病毒疫情對國泰構成干擾,帶來更大不確定性,阻礙其復甦。
該行指,國泰航空(00293.HK)去年純利跌28%至16.91億元,意味去年下半年純利按年大跌87%至3.44億元,去年下半年純利受累於香港空運大幅倒退。
大摩引述國泰管理層稱,上市公司在今年3至4月擬削減65%運力,同期承載率跌50%及收益率下滑。中國內地航線90%運力暫停,由於網絡效應將帶來更大影響。國泰在40%燃油在每桶64美元價格進行對沖,倘油價持續疲弱,對沖損失將帶來潛在下行壓力。
該行削減對國泰估算,指以疫情在4至5月進入高峰,隨後在第三季緩和為假設,並在估算潛在燃油對沖損失計入對今年國際油價最新預測,大摩料國泰今年將錄107億元虧損,意味股本回報率錄負16%。大摩料其淨槓桿在今年底將擴大至180%,高於去年底止的123%。該行料國泰2021年扭虧轉盈,錄純利14.24億元,料2022年純利17.32億元。
大摩指,國泰現估值相當於今年預測市帳率0.7倍,較1999年起歷史均值低出1.2個標準差,但仍高於1999年起0.6倍的歷史低位。大摩評估倘目前情況延長一個月,將對國泰去年底止帳面價值帶來額外4%的負面影響。
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