金山軟件(03888.HK)：三十二年打造護城河，新動能驅動業績改善，給予“買入”評級
機構：東北證券
評級：買入
三十二年打造護城河，夢想金山領導中國民族軟件產業。公司成立於1998年，WPS是其早期最重大成果，是國內辦公軟件市場中最優秀的產品，此外，雲服務和遊戲業務是公司另外兩大主營業務。
WPSC端訂閲業務量價齊升，海外業務是其未來潛在增量。C端訂閲業務未來成長邏輯有二：一是龐大免費用户基礎（MAU超3億）構建業務發展護城河；二是付費率與ARPPU雙提升，市場空間廣闊。互聯網廣告推廣業務採用“免費+廣告”為主的盈利模式，考慮到用户體驗度，預計收入穩健增長。國際化是金山辦公的重要戰略舉措和巨大價值所在，現階段金山辦公重點佈局印度、印尼等市場。
WPSB端業務由場地授權模式向訂閲模式轉換，創新可信市場水大魚大。辦公軟件產品使用授權業務是公司傳統核心業務，我們測算黨政、事業單位及央企國企辦公市場空間近35億元/年，中小企業市場潛在空間巨大，金山辦公攜手釘釘、華為WeLink、騰訊等共同拓展B端市場；此外，WPS+雲辦公加快實現傳統授權模式向訂閲模式轉型。受益於創新可信的推進，公司B端業務有望迎來快速增長。
金山雲預將分拆獨立上市，減少公司虧損壓力。金山雲兼具互聯網特質和金山集團30年企業級服務基因，是中國第三大互聯網雲廠商和第六大公有云IaaS廠商，以視頻云為基礎，不斷髮力遊戲雲、金融雲、政府雲、醫療雲等其他方向。金山雲預將分拆獨立上市，預計上市後將減少公司虧損壓力，其D+輪融資對應估值26.5億美元。
《劍網3》端遊常青，“3+3”手遊策略預將支持遊戲業務回暖。《劍網3》仍然是目前主流端遊，持續為公司貢獻穩定流水。移動遊戲期待爆款，《劍網3：指尖江湖》上線初期表現欠佳，後續值得期待；《雙生視界》流水總額表現優異，後續有望繼續貢獻穩定流水。同時，公司儲備3+3遊戲，3款（《劍歌行》《魔域3D》《卧龍吟》）達到上線標準，預計2020年公司手遊業務將會有明顯好轉。
盈利預測：預計2019-2021年，歸母淨利潤為-11.50/2.92/5.56億元，EPS為-0.84/0.21/0.41元，當前股價對應的PE為-29/113/59倍，首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級。
風險提示：政策推進不及預期；手遊不及預期；雲業務競爭加劇
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