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大和:下調蒙牛乳業(2319.HK)目標價至32.6港元 重申買入評級
格隆匯 03-12 12:59

大和發表研究報告指,預期蒙牛乳業(2319.HK)今年上半年業績將受原材料和產品方面遇上高存貨的問題,蒙牛於今年2月繼續向供應商購入生乳,亦需要把相關產品轉化成奶粉作保存,或影響今年上半年約2%的毛利率,將目標價由35.5港元下調至32.6港元,重申“買入”投資評級。

該行又下調蒙牛2020年至2021年每股盈利預測3%至15%,今年2月中國20家最大的乳業企業收入均大降30%-50%,因受疫情影響而使零售商對相關貨品的需求下降,蒙牛的分銷商存貨較多,亦認為相關銷售壓力將會延續至今年第二季。

該行續指,疫情或加速中國乳業整合的速度,隨著蒙牛競爭對手原材料短缺,將有助蒙牛在農村地區,特別是巴斯德消毒法產品的滲透,預期今年下半年生乳成本將會上升,並促使整個產業的價格上升,料蒙牛今年上半年收入增長按年減約10%,下半年至2021年則增長10%至12%。

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