《大行报告》花旗下调中石油(00857.HK)评级至「沽售」 降中海油(00883.HK)评级至「中性」
花旗发表研究报告指,因油组国与俄罗斯未能达成减产协议,该行商品团队将2020年的布兰特油价预测由54元降至43元,而2021年由53元降至49元,但相信未来双方会再讨论并达成协议,推测第三季有机会减产100万桶油当量,不过仍未足以支持油价於年底达40美元。需求方面,首季因应新型肺炎疫情影响而下降,相信需求会继续於年内录负增长,明年才会复苏。
该行以每桶43美元计,降中石油(00857.HK)2020年盈利预测72%、中海油(00883.HK)盈利预测43%、中石化(00386.HK)盈利预测20%,当中只有中海油有盈利,因其成本只有29美元,评级降至「中性」;而中石油成本为40美元,评级下调至「沽售」;中石化则成为行业首选,评级维持「中性」。
该行又指,油服股股价亦已跌15-20%,但相信政策不变,而政府亦将利用此机会减少对进口石的依赖,油公司会微调中期资本开支,但今年似乎不会改变,维持对中海油田服务(02883.HK)「买入」评级。
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