時代中國控股(01233.HK)：積極擴張，舊改有亮點
機構：興業證券
投資要點
核心淨利潤同比增長30%，業績符合預期：公司2019年營業收入424.3億元人民幣(下同)，同比增長23.4%，其中城市更新業務連續第二年貢獻營收21.7億元；核心淨利潤54.6億元，同比增長30%，毛利率和核心淨利潤分別為29.3%和12.9%，毛利率略有下滑，核心淨利潤率提升0.7個百分點；末期每股派息84.45分，派息率為核心淨利潤的30%，對應當前股價的股息收益率為6.5%。
積極擴張土儲，舊改有亮點：公司2019年權益土地款達到234億元，同比增長80%，新增土儲46%來自舊改項目，公司總土儲達到2300萬平米。公司的舊改業務亮點突出，一是儲備項目增加到120個，潛在GFA4300萬平米，二是加大轉化力度，2019年轉化了10個，2020年預計不低於這個數量。舊改的提前佈局和轉化有利於改善公司的土儲結構和盈利能力。?貨值充足，銷售目標略低：公司2020年銷售目標為823億元，同比增長5%，略低於預期。公司全年總可售貨值約為1450-1500億，我們預計隨着疫情結束，市場恢復，公司全年銷售有望超過900億元。
財務槓桿可控，融資成本持續下行：公司2019年底淨負債率為67.2%，較2018年有所提升，但仍處於行業較低水平，公司仍有繼續提升空間。公司的平均融資成本降了20個bp至7.5%，全球降息的環境有利於公司持續降低融資成本。
我們的觀點：公司在舊改業務上的提前佈局開始收穫成效，公司加大了轉化力度，變現的模式更加成熟，公司可以提前釋放舊改紅利，改善土儲結構，提升盈利能力。公司在深耕大灣區的同時，已經戰略進入成都、杭州、武漢等重點城市，銷售規模穩步提升，接近千億門檻。目前公司估值仍處於行業較低水平，股息收益率達到6.5%。
風險提示：宏觀經濟增長放緩；行業調控政策加嚴；流動性收緊；公司銷售不及預期；人民幣貶值；城市更新項目進展不及預期。
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