《大行报告》汇丰研究下调华能(00902.HK)及大唐发电(00991.HK)目标价 首选润电(00836.HK)
汇丰研究发表报告,预期在中国煤炭价格疲弱的背景下,未来数周煤炭股将会公布2019财年强劲的盈利复苏表现,尤其是华润电力(00836.HK)的纯利似乎会较市场预期高出10%,而这在短期内将会是正面的催化剂。另外,该行相信目前40%的派息比率对润电而言是舒适的,相信不太可能出现令人失望的派息,重申润电是该行的行业的首选,投资评级为「买入」,目标价维持15元不变。另一方面,虽然华能(00902.HK)及大唐发电(00991.HK)有望录得可观的经常性利润增长,但预期两家公司在去年第四季录得重大的减值损失,而这将会导致令人失望的派息,均将其目标价分别由6.1元下调至5.6元,以及由2.1元下调至1.7元。该行指出,受到疫情爆发的影响,中国的电力需求在今年首季或有下跌,但留意到在过去数周每日煤炭消费量一直在稳步增加,但由较去年同期低出17%,这或会影响首季的热利用率。但该行仍认为疫情的影响对煤炭股而言是双刃剑,因为需求疲弱或会令每单位燃料成本下跌。因此,该行认为自疫情爆发而来,煤炭股股价平均下跌16%是不合理的事情。另外,汇丰预期今年的关税前景将会较市场预期好,相信随着2019财年业绩发布有更清晰的指引,以及2020首季业绩公布,将能支持该行的理论并有助於消除市场对关税的忧虑。
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