《大行报告》高盛下调第二三季布兰特油价预测至每桶30美元 对内地炼油企业现金流正面
高盛发表报告,大幅下调今年第二季及第三季布兰特期油价格预测至每桶30美元,并预期至明年第四季,油价将逐步回升至每桶60美元。该行相信,若其预测发生,将触发内地发改委於2016年设立的炼油产品定价锁定於每桶40美元的「地板价」政策。高盛表示,基於国际原油价格的改变,内地发改委每10个工作天对炼油产品价格进行调整。於2016年1月,发改委公布新政策,如海外基准油价下降至低於每桶40美元的水平,将不会进一步对炼油产品价格作调整,可能产生的超额利润会计提风险准备金。该行认为,机制部分是希望维持汽油/柴油定价稳定,部分是支持上游主要油企的现金流,因油价跌至低於盈亏平衡点对油企盈利造成负面影响。该行提到,若布兰特油价在今年第二季及第三季跌至每桶30美元,内地「地板价」锁定价格机制将被触发,而现时油价跌势及行业经营环境与2016年时大为不同,因油价低於盈亏平衡点,预期上游企业的盈利会继续面对挑战,炼油产品价格则可能处稳定水平。高盛又称,油价处每桶30美元代表中资炼油企业会有吸引的额外现金流,根据2016年的定价机制,有关炼油厂在纳入额外利润後,炼油毛利/现金流料可以翻倍。
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