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《大行報告》摩通:油價下跌對中石化(00386.HK)及中石油(00857.HK)煉油業務有利
阿思達克 03-09 14:04
OPEC與俄羅斯減產談判破裂,拖累國際油價大跌,惟摩根大通認為,由於內地煉油「地板價」機制鎖定價格,因此油價下跌對內地大型煉油廠實際上有利,料中石化(00386.HK)及中石油(00857.HK)有機會受惠。摩通發表研報指,由於中國現存的煉油定價機制已將成品油價格鎖定在每桶40美元的基準水平,因此在2015年12月10至2016年3月8日,布蘭特期油價格跌穿破每桶40美元期間,中石化及中石油藉定價機制分別獲得約100億元人民幣及70億元人民幣利潤。該行表示,若原油價格維持現水平,預計國有企業煉油業務將較小規模的地方煉油廠更能受惠,主要是由於大型企業有較大規模的綜合營銷業務、更廉價的中東原油佔比更大。摩通又指出,在新型肺炎疫情影響下,內地成品油需求減少,大油廠亦叫停了外判工作,地方油廠近乎停擺,在內地恢復需求之前,料只有國企油廠能夠維持利用率在70%以上。另外,該行估計,中石油及中石化液化天然氣及天然氣進口業務2020財年虧損將持續擴大。
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