頤海國際 ( 1579.HK ) 2019年業績前瞻：“大單品“有望繼續支撐公司表現，給予“買入”評級，目標價58.70港元
機構：光大證券
評級：買入
目標價：58.70港元
◆“大單品”有望繼續支撐公司19全年表現近期，由於市場擔心公司19H2業績在18H2高基數下承壓，股價有較大幅度的調整。從我們近期的渠道調研情況看，頤海國際旗下的主要“大單品”：自加熱小火鍋系列、以及火鍋底料（例如清油麻辣）的鋪貨以及銷售情況依舊良好。我們預計自加熱小火鍋雖然19H2的增速有所下降，但良好銷量表現依舊有望持續，全年預計將貢獻近10個億的銷售額，預計公司2019全年營收增速為60%左右。“大單品”的持續出色表現源於：1、公司強大的品牌力在C端進一步滲透；2、銷售體制改革後銷售人員工作的積極性得到了進一步的激發。
◆靈活的銷售體制進一步激發公司活力公司自2019年年初開始對銷售體系進行改革，引入了師徒制和合夥人PK制度。師徒制下，徒弟守舊區域，師傅負責開拓新區域，這樣的安排可以進一步激勵銷售人員拓展新的地區。PK制度進一步明確獎懲標準，考核分為A/B/C三個等級，考核指標包括：渠道庫存、經銷商反饋、系統管理等，如連續兩個季度得C將有淘汰風險，A等級則可以優先接管淘汰區域。PK制下區域的劃分更有靈活性，從而可以進一步激發銷售人員的潛力。公司經銷商數量約3000人，新品銷售方面經銷商亦參與分成，這樣的模式下，經銷商有動力去銷售新品。
◆2020年新品推出加速，數量是孕育“大單品”的基礎公司以往會在每年3月10月分別召開兩次經銷商大會，並宣佈新品。2019年因為集中精力在銷售，僅舉行了3月的經銷商大會，新品將會在2020年一次性推出。因而預計這次的新品推出力度非常大，包括“24道菜”在內的複合調味料產品：涵蓋川菜、粵菜等菜系；以及冷鍋串串、和沖泡杯（米飯）等。在小火鍋預計邁入十億門檻的當下，公司需要有新的“大單品”接力。充足、有吸引力的新品儲備是孕育“大單品”的基礎，我們期待公司未來在新品上的發力。
◆盈利預測、估值與評級：我們預計公司2019H2的表現依舊強勁，上調2019-2021年盈利預測，預計收入分別為42.87、57.05和75.23億元，淨利分別為7.39、9.78和12.83億元。我們繼續看好銷售體制改革帶來的效率提升以及2020年新品推出後公司的中長期潛力，上調目標價至58.70元港幣，對應2020年44xPE，上調評級至“買入”。
◆風險提示：1）新品類的推出遇到市場挑戰；2）上游原材料漲價過快。
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