中芯國際(00981.HK)：光刻機陸續搬入，2H20收入增長值得期待，維持“強烈推薦”評級
機構：方正證券
評級：強烈推薦
事件：據羊城晚報報道，3月4日上午，中芯國際從荷蘭進口的一台大型光刻機進入深圳廠，主要用於企業復工復產後的生產線擴容，報道援引中芯國際公司關務經理羅榮慧話語稱，生產線擴容後全年預計可為企業增加10%左右的營收。
光刻機搬入廠區後，預計大約5個月後開始貢獻營收
晶圓代工廠與設備廠商的合作進程，在經歷了：試驗評估->規格確定->下單->機台設計、製造、測試、出貨等流程後，機台搬入（目前新聞報道的事件），搬入後需經歷：組裝+電氣配線、氣體、藥液配管連接->移交->特性評估、運轉測試->驗收->付款等環節後，相關機台將開始投入生產。我們判斷本次搬入的機台將在大約5個月後投入生產（實際投入生產時間根據裝機進度而定），擴產完成後深圳廠區8寸產能有望達到60kwpm（4Q19財報中為55kwpm），屆時將為中芯國際深圳廠區增加約10%的營收。
8寸廠2020年計劃擴產30k，天津廠預計是今年擴產主力
根據公司4Q19業績會，2020年公司預計擴建30kwpm8寸產能。天津廠截至4Q19產能為58kwpm，據公司公告，該廠計劃建成150kwpm全球單體規模最大的8英寸集成電路生產線。預計天津廠是今年中芯國際8寸產能擴產主要廠區。
CIS、PMIC等需求強勁，下半年擴產帶來收入增長值得期待
需求端：受到國產轉單、5G手機備貨的影響，預計2020下半年CIS、PMIC、指紋IC、藍牙IC等產品仍需求強勁，助力公司在擴產情況下產能利用率達到“傳統旺季”水平。供給端：光刻機通常是產線中的產出（throughput）瓶頸設備，光刻機的投入生產預計將有效提高產線產能。下半年擴產帶來的收入增長值得期待。
投資建議
半導體行業已處於上行週期，中芯國際2020年將重啟增長，同時先進製程研發進展順利。我們預計公司2020-2022年實現收入36.46/40.36/44.04億美元，每股淨資產為1.28/1.34/1.41美元，對應當前市值的PB為1.53、1.46、1.39倍，維持“強烈推薦”評級。
風險提示：疫情或對2Q20業績產生小幅影響；擴產後折舊提高或使2H20毛利率承壓；技術研發不及預期；行業競爭加劇；中美貿易摩擦加劇。
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