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《大行报告》摩通:油价下跌对中石化(00386.HK)及中石油(00857.HK)炼油业务有利
阿思达克 03-09 14:04
OPEC与俄罗斯减产谈判破裂,拖累国际油价大跌,惟摩根大通认为,由於内地炼油「地板价」机制锁定价格,因此油价下跌对内地大型炼油厂实际上有利,料中石化(00386.HK)及中石油(00857.HK)有机会受惠。摩通发表研报指,由於中国现存的炼油定价机制已将成品油价格锁定在每桶40美元的基准水平,因此在2015年12月10至2016年3月8日,布兰特期油价格跌穿破每桶40美元期间,中石化及中石油藉定价机制分别获得约100亿元人民币及70亿元人民币利润。该行表示,若原油价格维持现水平,预计国有企业炼油业务将较小规模的地方炼油厂更能受惠,主要是由於大型企业有较大规模的综合营销业务、更廉价的中东原油占比更大。摩通又指出,在新型肺炎疫情影响下,内地成品油需求减少,大油厂亦叫停了外判工作,地方油厂近乎停摆,在内地恢复需求之前,料只有国企油厂能够维持利用率在70%以上。另外,该行估计,中石油及中石化液化天然气及天然气进口业务2020财年亏损将持续扩大。
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