植耀輝: 港股恐跌破25,000點 價格戰油股「無運行」
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,美股上周五(6日)繼續大幅波勳,雖然新增職位優於預期,但受疫情擴散影響環球供應鏈的陰霾下,美股仍大幅低開逾700點,其後跌幅更擴大至接近千點。不過跌幅其後逐步收窄,最終道指跌幅收窄至不足1%,美國三大指數全周計更錄得升幅,道指累升1.7%,標普及納指分別微升0.6%及 0.1%。隨著股市動盪及擔心經濟前景,資金繼續湧入債市。美國10年期及30年期債息均一度創下歷史新低。根據利率期貨市場顯示,聯儲局下周議息再減息機率已達100%,只是筆者認為儘管減息有助穩定金融市場,但疫情一日未受控,對經濟潛在衝擊仍極具破壞性,股市波動亦在所難免矣。至於港股,上周繼續大上大落,然而基於投資市場預期仍會因疫情而動盪,加上區內股市今早(9日)大幅急挫,恐怕恆指將難免進一步考驗25,000點水平。另外,今日油股又會「大插」,受有消息指沙特擬大增出口並打「價格戰」,沙特股市大跌8%,沙特阿美股價更大跌9%,連去年之招股價亦告失守。恐怕三大油股又會再試新低矣。由於油價未來仍易跌難升,所以不建議博反彈。(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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