融創中國(01918.HK)2020年2月銷售數據點評：疫情下銷售暫弱，充裕貨值保障長期優勢，重申“強推”評級，目標價60.00港元
機構：華創證券
評級：強推
目標價：60.00港元
事件：
3月5日，融創中國公佈，2020年2月公司實現合同銷售金額122.1億元，同比下降33.2%；實現合同銷售面積88.9萬平方米，同比下降26.9%。合同銷售均價
13,730元/平米，同比下降8.6%。
點評：
2月銷售122.1億、同比-33%，受疫情影響走弱、但充裕貨值保障銷售彈性
2月銷售金額122.1億元，環比-34.5%、同比-33.2%；銷售面積88.9萬平米，環比-34.5%、同比-26.9%，公司銷售同比下降主要受到肺炎疫情影響；銷售均價13,730元/平米，環比+0.1%、同比-8.6%。1-2月，公司累計實現簽約金額308.4億元，同比-27.0%，較前值-4.7pct，累計銷售金額克而瑞排名位居行業第六，考慮到公司銷售高峯期在下半年，後續排名有望提升；累計實現簽約面積224.7萬平米，同比-20.0%，較前值-5.3pct；累計銷售均價13,720元/平米，同比-8.8%。
本次疫情對於一二線城市的影響預計相對較小，購房需求更多是延後，而非消失，考慮到公司佈局聚焦於一二線城市及環一線熱點城市，可售貨值充裕，並且近期收購環球世紀及時代環球優質資產包，增加2020年可售貨值彈性，預計2020年銷售有望維持較高增速。
低價收購優質資產包，確權/含未確權貨值2,400、6,000億，增厚優質土儲
近期公司收購雲南城投集團持有的環球世紀及時代環球各51%股權，在成都、武漢、長沙、昆明等城市補充優質土儲，合計未售建面約2,390萬平米，對應未售貨值約2,400億元，估算地價僅約1,900元/平米，佔比預估銷售均價僅19%。此外，考慮已達成意向協議但尚未正式獲取的土儲後，合計可售建面約6,304.9萬平米，估算未售建面約5,923.4萬平米，對應未售貨值超6,000億元。本次收購以較低的土地成本補充大量優質的土地儲備，進一步豐富公司土儲，並加大公司明年可售貨值彈性，確保後續銷售穩步增長，並保障較高的利潤率表現。
投資建議：疫情下銷售暫弱，充裕貨值保障長期優勢，重申“強推”評級融創中國堅持深耕一二線，以逆週期擴張策略，成功在15-17年逆勢加槓桿擴張，並藉以併購擴張的標籤優勢，打造了厚實優質土儲以及低廉土地成本的強大優勢，利於實現快週轉及高毛利率，預示後續銷售和業績“量質提升”，同時隨業績集中釋放，淨負債率望顯著下降、帶動融資成本下行，形成錦上添花。此外，公司作為行業龍頭之一也有望充分受益“融資、拿地、銷售”集中度三重跳增。我們維持公司2019-21年每股收益預測5.69、7.38、9.57元，目前對應19/20年PE僅7.3/5.6倍，我們繼續看好公司銷售和業績的持續雙雙高增，維持目標價60.00港元，重申“強推”評級。
風險提示：新冠肺炎疫情影響超預期、房地產調控政策超預期收緊
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