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《大行報告》中金:油價技術上已進熊市 內地煉油「地板價」機制令油企需繳風險準備金
阿思達克 03-09 08:36
就OPEC於3月7日維也納會議後,宣布了最終未能達成新的進一步減產協議,而原有的減產協議將於今年 3月底到期,理論上來說屆時OPEC和非OPEC國家,包括俄羅斯將不再受任何產量協議的約束,中金發表報告指,在此次會議舉行之前,市場原預期OPEC+有望深化至2020年底每天減產150萬桶以支撐油市,其中OPEC和非OPEC分別承擔100萬桶/天和50萬桶/天。受該事件影響,國際期油急挫。中金認為國際油價從技術上已經進入熊市,不排除短期仍存在進一步下行的風險,但是油價的急跌有助於油市出清高成本產能,加速市場再平衡。該行指,布蘭特油價由年初以來已經下跌了近三分之一;考慮到煉廠連續作業和移動平均法計算原油加工成本的特性,該行預計今年首季煉油行業或面臨較大的庫存損失。根據測算,年加工能力達2,000萬噸的煉廠,按1.5個月原油庫存規模計算,截止目前為止,潛在庫存損失可能達6億人民幣。當然,倘若未來油價止跌回升,煉廠將重新享受低加工成本的優勢,取得庫存收益。【「地板價」機制 需繳風險金】中金表示,內地煉油板塊「地板價」機制臨近。根據國家發改委的規定,當一攬子原油價格跌破40美元/桶時,國內汽、柴油最高零售價格不再下調,煉廠端可能產生的超額利潤將計提風險準備金,央企由財政部徵收,地方企業由地方徵收。最近一次觸發該機制是在2016年,當時的情況是國有石油公司在上市公司層面留存了這部分超額收益,而由其集團母公司代繳,本質上相當於集團公司直接補貼了上市公司小股東。倘若未來油價跌破40美元/桶並再次觸發「地板價」機制,預計會由上市公司直接繳納風險準備金,因此認為該機制對國營煉廠的直接影響偏中性。然而,考慮到地方企業受地方徵收機關的監管力度遠低於國有石油公司, 該行認為該情形下,地煉和民營大煉化有望從中受益。 該行指,油價急跌對中國油服板塊影響有限,海上油氣勘探與開發高景氣有望維繫。該行認為在中國政府「增儲上產」的能源戰略號召下,中國上游資本支出有望穩步增長,與油價短期波動脫鉤;其中海上油氣勘探與開發投入持續增長的確定性最強。通常情況下,油價的下跌對於部分可以在天然氣和原油之間切換的大工業客戶來說,會降低天然氣對其的吸引力,但是考慮到近期國家發改委要求提前執行淡季價格等政策,根據該行的監測,目前已出台相關政策的省市,如果以2020年1月1號的實現氣價來算,平均降低15%-20%,降幅約0.35元/立方米,所有降幅傳導至終端,有助增強天然氣對比原油作為燃料的經濟性,因此,中金認為油價波動對城燃短期影響有限。
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