小米集團-W(1810.HK)：從MUJI品牌價值，看小米智能家居AIoT發展潛力，維持“買入”評級，目標價15.3港元
機構：興業證券
評級：買入
目標價：15.3港元
投資要點
與小米與MUJI，貌離神合，品牌發展有跨時代對標的意義。無印良品（MUJI）是日本最大的生活方式品牌，主營家居用品、服飾、食品，1990s在日本本土實現快速的發展，2000年後全球佈局；Interbrand估算，MUJI品牌價值達16億美元，排名日本前三十。MUJI和小米在產品理念、設計風格等方面有諸多相似之處，分析MUJI在家居領域的品牌營銷、供應鏈與海外市場發展經驗，有助於判斷小米在“智能家居”時代的投資價值。
從“老牌”MUJI看“新牌”小米。在品牌定位上，MUJI的“物有所值”和小米的“感動人心，價格厚道”不謀而合，同時帶有鮮明的生活方式風格；此外，兩者皆秉持極簡的產品設計風格，並提供一站式購物體驗。我們認為，智能硬件逐漸發展為“新家居用品”，知名品牌可降低消費者認知成本，促進交叉銷售與增強渠道複用效應。目前在國內智能硬件賽道，小米以單一品牌、全產品覆蓋的小米之家，建立領先的生態體系。
越超越MUJI，小米佈局智能家居時代。目前米家APP已經可接入2200+智能硬件，小愛AI月活高達5790萬人，有300萬+用户使用5個以上產品。在供應端，小米的生態鏈模式有助於快速的產品創新及品類擴張。產品互聯特徵帶來較強的規模效應，未來在AIoT硬件銷售和相關服務變現都有廣闊空間。小米投資的賬面價值約287億人民幣（3Q19），隨着生態鏈企業陸續上市，小米投資價值有望得到重估，公司淨值進一步提升。
投資建議：上調價目標價4.1%至至15.3。港元，維持“買入”評級。考慮到近期特殊情況對行業會產生一定影響，我們調整公司2019/20/21年收入預測為2059/2638/3177億人民幣，調整後歸母淨利潤109/120/149億人民幣。然而在特殊情況下，小米手機國內份額有更強的提升動能，因此我們對公司估值倍數更為樂觀。上調目標價4.1%至15.3港元（估值基於未來12個月利潤的24倍PE+投資賬面價值1.0倍PB），維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：近期特殊事件對國內業務產生影響；手機競爭趨於激烈；空/冰/洗銷售低於預期；性價比策略影響硬件利潤空間
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