敏實集團(0425.HK):定點MEB全球潛在大型鋁電池盒供應商,首次覆蓋給予公司“增持”評級,目標價34港幣
機構:天風證券
評級:增持
目標價:34港幣
定點MEB全球潛在大型鋁電池盒供應商
獲歐洲大眾MEB訂單全球潛在大型鋁製電池盒供應商
公司獲得了歐洲大眾MEB訂單,配套大眾所有B、C、D級電動車。至此電池殼客户遍及大眾、寶馬奔馳、沃爾沃、本田等德系、日系高端新能源車品牌,目前進展中的項目近20項,為全球最大的鋁製電池盒供應商之一,公司鋁電池盒業務“百億”營收目標戰略蓄勢待發。我們預計2025年全球鋁電池殼市場將達近350億元,為公司後續拿訂單提供充足市場空間。
輕量化鋁製產品助推單車配套價值創新高
公司持續研發新產品,品類日趨豐富,單車價值量逐年提升,從2005年的100元上升至2018年的388元。敏實順應輕量化,積極佈局鋁產品,品類單車價值量大幅提升,如電池殼單價在2000-5000元。電池殼加速放量,單車價值有望再跨台階。
多品類+多產地+多客户跨入內外飾第一梯隊行列
多品類:公司深耕汽車零部件領域多年,現已形成飾條飾件、車身結構件、行李架、座椅骨架系統、新業務(電池殼、攝像頭模組、ACC標牌)五大產品線,品類豐富。多產地:在國內經營30餘工廠,覆蓋全國重點汽車工業製造基地,全球化方面,在美國、泰國、墨西哥擁有生產基地,同時在東京、慕尼黑、底特律設立銷售和設計中心,穩步推進國際業務。多客户:全球範圍內超過80%的主機廠都是敏實的客户,為奔馳、寶馬、奧迪、大眾、戴姆勒等知名主機廠的全球核心供應商。
與全球優秀的內飾件供應商相比,敏實集團客户資源豐富、產品種類多元、生產規模領先,已跨入第一梯隊。在全球汽車零部件配套供應商百強榜中,自自2017年敏實集團首次入榜以來,排名分別為第93,第92,第86位,排名持續提升。
我們預計公司19-22年營收分別為133、147、163、182億元,歸母淨利潤分別為18、20.6、23.4、26.2億元,對應PE分別為16x、14、13x、11x。考慮到公司電池殼等鋁製品業績規模打開後,收入佔比有望達到30%,公司估值體系有望重塑,給予公司21年15倍PE,對應目標價30元人民幣(對應港幣34元),首次覆蓋,給予公司“增持”評級。
風險提示:疫情恢復不達預期;國內乘用車消費情緒回暖低於預期;地緣政治風險加劇;跨市場估值誤差。
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