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野村:料周大福(1929.HK)五月起逐步复苏 降目标价至8.1港元
格隆汇 03-05 15:46

野村发表研究报告指出,受累于新型肺炎爆发,估计周大福(1929.HK)的业务将延至今年5月才见复苏,野村已将周大福2020-22年度的盈利预测下调10-17%,目标价亦调低约12%至8.1港元,但维持“买入”评级。

周大福昨天公布,集团截至今年2月29日止2个月,中国内地同店销售按年下跌49%,香港及澳门同店销售按年跌59%。计及疫症影响后,野村现时基本预测,周大福于今年2-4月的香港同店销售将下跌60%,意味2020及2021年度其香港同店销售分别将下跌37%和2%。

不过,周大福的成本将受惠于潜在减租和关闭门店。报告指出,2021年度周大福将有超过40家门店需要续租,估计减租幅度会比2020下半年度高出20-50%。

野村又预测,周大福今年2-4月内地同店销售会减少50%,相当于2020及2021年度内地同店销售分别将减少11%和上升14%。

野村报告提到,自1月中旬以来,周大福股价已累计下跌22%,假设疫情短期内受控,其股价跌幅已大致反映负面因素,鉴于集团内地网络多元化,以及疫情减退后市场对黄金及钻饰需求将回复正常,因此野村有信心周大福业务将会明显复苏。

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