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《業績前瞻》券商料友邦(01299.HK)去年新業務價值增逾8% 聚焦疫情影響
阿思達克 03-05 15:34
友邦(01299.HK)將於下周四(12日)公布截至去年12月31日止年度的全年業績,受惠2019年上半年旗下本港及中國內地業務強勁所推動,各主要財務指標取得雙位數字增長,但下半年受本港社會事件影響內地客投保意欲,本網綜合12間券商預期友邦去年新業務價值介乎41.95億美元至44.13億美元,較2018年同期39.55億美元,以實質匯率(AER)計按年升6.1%至11.6%,中位數為43億元,按年升8.7%。綜合10間券商指,預期友邦受惠投資回報按年大幅改善(2018年因有關股權及房地產投資回報的短期波動的相關虧損錄20.63億美元),料2019年純利介乎56.37億美元至70.63億美元,較2018年同期25.97億美元,按年升1.17倍至1.75倍,中位數為62.72億元,按年升1.42倍。市場關注疫情對友邦各地區業務、投資回報等潛在影響。【首季銷售弱 盈利預測降】大和上月報告,料友邦去年純利可按年升1.36倍至61.25億美元,料淨實現投資部份可由2018年虧損45.66億美元,期內扭虧為錄相關溢利28.15億美元,料友邦2019年年化新保費可按年升2.5%、料實質匯率計新業務價值可按年升8.9%至43.07億美元,綜合新業務價值毛利率可由2018年的60%升至期內64.6%,料內含價值可按年升14%。該行亦指,疫情令本港商業活動暫停及經紀無法進行面對面銷售,或大幅影響友邦經紀銷售渠道。匯豐環球研究料友邦去年新業務價值按年升9.3%、內含價值可升14%、料國際財務報告準則稅後營運溢利上升12%、相信新型冠狀病毒疫情對中港市場潛在影響會成市場焦點摩根士丹利上月認為,內地正在實施的隔離措施,令保險經紀難以拜訪客戶,因而會在短期令首季的壽險銷售放緩。3月份之後仍實施隔離措施或會對保險業今年的業務計劃帶來下行風險。該行仍看好友邦,認為若新型冠狀病毒肺炎的影響僅在首季,對於友邦目前的整體估值並無影響。---------------------------------------本網綜合12間券商指,預期友邦去年新業務價值介乎41.95億美元至44.13億美元,較2018年同期39.55億美元,按年升6.1%至11.6%。中位數為43億元,按年升8.7%。券商│2019年新業務價值預測│按年變幅(實質匯率)中信証券│44.13億美元│+11.6%美銀證券│43.74億美元│+10.6%麥格理│43.3億美元│+9.5%摩根大通│43.25億美元│+9.4%匯豐環球研究│43.22億美元│+9.3%大和│43.07億美元│+8.9%海通國際│42.94億美元│+8.6%交銀國際│42.92億美元│+8.5%中金│42.77億美元│+8.1%瑞信│42.37億美元│+7.1%銀河-聯昌證券│42.26億美元│+6.9%高盛│41.95億美元│+6.1%按友邦2018年新業務價值39.55億美元推算-------------------------------------本網綜合10間券商指,預期友邦受惠投資回報按年大幅改善,去年純利介乎56.37億美元至70.63億美元,較2018年同期25.97億美元,按年升1.17倍至1.75倍,中位數為62.72億元,按年升1.42倍。券商│2019年淨利潤預測│按年變幅麥格理│70.63億美元│+175%匯豐環球研究│68.97億美元│+166%中金│67.46億美元│+160%瑞信│66.36億美元│+156%交銀國際│63.7億美元│+145%高盛│61.74億美元│+138%大和│61.25億美元│+136%申萬宏源│60.66億美元│+134%美銀證券│56.89億美元│+119%摩根大通│56.37億美元│+117%按友邦2018歸屬於母公司淨利潤25.97億美元推算-----------------------------------------綜合3間券商,預期友邦去年內涵價值營運溢利介乎87.9億元至90.09億元,較2018年同期82.78億美元,按年升6.2%至8.8%。券商│2019年內涵價值營運溢利預測│按年變幅麥格理│90.09億美元│+8.8%銀河-聯昌證券│85.76億美元│+3.6%高盛│87.90億美元│+6.2%按友邦2018年內涵價值營運溢利82.78億美元
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