頤海國際(1579.HK)：C端受益於疫情囤貨，繼續享受下沉紅利，維持“推薦”評級
機構：華創證券
評級：增持
從餐飲視角出發，頤海國際擁有全國超強餐飲品牌，自身通過食品製造實現變現將餐飲聚會場景延伸向家庭消費，“賣產品”是比“開餐廳”更為穩定、連續的盈利模式，有效規避了餐飲模型波動大，成本費用率高，淨利率不可測等弊端。
公司的核心競爭力在於
賽道好：產品立足於火鍋這個餐飲業優質賽道，麻辣口味廣譜，接受度高、成癮性強。
品牌強：品牌建設成本不在體內的超強全國性品牌，海底撈25年曆史，近四年進入加速擴張期，歷經檢驗，當之無愧中餐第一品牌。
靈活而貼近市場需求的研發機制：依託海底撈門店及時獲取市場需求，縮短研發週期，市場觸覺靈敏，反饋機制健全。
渠道制度完善：內部合夥人+師徒制強激勵銷售人員，為渠道下沉儲備人才，外部與經銷商合作共贏。
2B受海底撈關店影響，2C受益於疫情囤貨
2B業務端：目前主要服務於海底撈門店，2019年將2B定製餐調服務剝離給蜀海，預計2B業務收入增速與海底撈收入增速之間差異縮小。
2C業務端：
自熱小火鍋：春節至2月初各終端渠道均處於清庫存斷貨狀態，復工之後生產基地優先補貨小火鍋。我們認為，小火鍋耐儲、易耗、性價比高、操作簡單，葷素搭配足以滿足一餐需要，預期疫情結束後仍將作為居家常備，受益於“宅居”帶來的習慣改變，需求穩定上升。
複合調味料：公司複合調味料品類不斷擴列，小龍蝦系列，酸菜魚系列，麻辣燙，麻辣香鍋，珍滷等；今年春天24道川味上市。公司產品性價比高，口味多元化，疫情培養年輕人在家做飯，更依賴於複合調味料，市場空間不斷擴大。
火鍋底料：有望逐步擺脱火鍋影響力，實現一料多用，口味創新進一步刺激需求。
拌飯醬系列，“哇哦”休閒零食系列拓展產品邊界，逐步實現“去海底撈化”，增強公司在非辣味產品領域影響力，以爆款產品形成消費者認知，突破品牌邊界。
產能建設方面：2019年霸州一期建成投產，預計產能可達17萬噸，未來霸州二期，馬鞍山二期，漯河一期，二期接連建成投產將為公司業績增長打開空間。
盈利預測：我們看好未來產能擴張和渠道下沉紅利，銷售結構進一步優化，將2019-2021年EPS預測由0.69、0.92、1.20元上調至0.71、0.93、1.23元，同比增長43.33%、31.11%、32.51%。當前股價對應PE分別為76X、58X、44X。鑑於公司“強勢品牌背書，靈活的研發機制，充分賦能銷售團隊的管理機制”三項能力領先市場，同時考慮到未來行業集中度進一步提升，給予公司2020年60倍PE，對應股價為62.30港元(當前匯率)，維持“推薦”評級。
風險提示：上游原材料成本價格上漲壓力；關聯方海底撈門店擴張不及預期；第三方渠道拓展不及預期；新產品推廣成功率不及預期；產能釋放不及預期。
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