羣益證券:韻達業務量持續增長 給予“買入”評級
韻達公司公佈2019年業績,全年營收346.24億元人民幣(下同),同比增長149.89%,歸母淨利潤26.56億元,同比下滑1.57%,業績略低於預期。
羣益證券發研究報告指,若剔除公司派件結構變化引起的營收口徑調整,估算2019年營收同比增長約255。淨利下降主要是2018年處置豐巢股權產生投資收益所致,剔除此影響,淨利同比增17.68%。
隨著疫情帶來居家時間的延長,網購滲透率與需求有望增加,公司業務量仍將保持較高增長空間。此外,政府出台相關減税降費政策,如免收增值税、社保減免、疫情期間免收車輛通行費等,有利於減輕成本端壓力。未來隨著產能的恢復以及疫情下網購滲透率和需求的增加,公司未來成長依然可期。預計20、21年實現淨利潤32.13億元、37.39億元,同比分別增長21%、16.4%,EPS為1.44元、1.68元,當前A股價對應PE分別為20倍、17.6倍,對此給予“買入”的投資建議。
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