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瑞银财管料股市续震荡 吁加码新兴市场 美元下跌支持金价
阿思达克 03-04 16:10
美联储紧急大手减息半厘应对疫情,联邦基金利率下降至1厘至1.25厘。瑞银财富管理全球首席投资总监Mark Haefele发表报告回应称,尽管降息在基本面上有利於股票,但投资者可能更担心的是降息背後暗示的未来数月经济前景。目前全球77个国家和地区已有超过9.2万宗确诊病例,这表明疫情进一步传播已是不可避免。股市走势可能继续震荡,防控疫情措施也会让经济活动付出代价。该行预期第一季全球经济增速将放缓至接近零,之後在全年余下时间回升。瑞银财管亦认为,美联储会率先降息也会对其他主要央行,如英伦银行、瑞士央行以及欧洲央行带来压力。同时,该行预期中国政府今年的财政支持占GDP比率将超过2%,此前的企业减税以及紧急支出规模已相当於GDP的1.2%。报告称,市场波动率预料将继续居高不下。新冠疫毒的威胁尚无法量化,因此,当前全球政策回应是否足够在短期内重建投资者信心也难以快下结论。瑞银财管建议加码新兴市场,预期新兴市场与发达市场的增长差异将在今年持续扩大,并有利於前者。除此之外,新兴市场股票的估值也低於发达市场。由地区来看,该行预期2020年获利增长最快的地区分别为拉丁美洲(15%)和亚洲(日本除外)(12.4%),美国仅为6%,欧洲则是衰退1%。利率下滑和弱势美元也会为新兴市场股票带来一臂之力。此外,该行建议保护投资组合抵御疫情影响。美联储会降息後,金价应声上涨3.8%。事实证明,黄金可以有效地为投资组合提供对冲抵御新冠疫情的风险,该行认为主要驱动因素仍在。不确定性对黄金有利。目前美国实际利率走低,降低了持有黄金的机会成本。由於黄金以美元计价,因此美元下跌支持金价。此外,在战术资产配置中,也相对於优质名义债券而看好通膨挂钩债券(TIPS)。今年,政府债券已体现出作为投资组合对冲工具的价值,而目前TIPS比名义优质债券更具优势。报告预期美国通胀率将在未来12个月上升至约1.8%,且美联储未来降息将有助於支持长期通胀预期。
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