《大行報告》星展料內房股去年基本盈利升15%至20% 首選時代中國及禹洲
星展發表報告指,內房發展商去年度業績未見大驚喜,預期行業利潤平均可增長約20%,核心利潤料升15-20%,負債比率較去年中期有所下降,利潤率則將由2018年的33%略微壓縮至30%。報告指,儘管新型肺炎疫情為市場帶來不確定性,但未有內房公司表示打算降低派息率,考慮到2月至3月份預售情況不佳,相信今年銷售目標較年初公布初步指標較為審慎。雖然市場憧憬當局未來會出台支持政策,但星展相信會有發展商選擇在公布業績後配股集資,機會較大的包括恆大(03333.HK)、金茂(00817.HK)、雅居樂(03383.HK)、佳兆業(01638.HK)、萬科(02202.HK)及融信(03301.HK);亦有部分因審計延遲而需要延期公布業績。該行指,行業目前估值水平為今年預測市盈率約5倍,僅較疫情爆發前的1月份第三週下跌約9%,相信已充分反映投資者對業務表現良好的預期,首選時代中國(01233.HK)及禹洲(01628.HK)等有充足優質土地儲備的發展商,另外旭輝(00884.HK)在經歷下跌後目前亦較吸引。
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