《大行报告》中金：内地上周新房成交持续回暖 料3月将进入「V」型底部
阿思达克 03-03 15:58
中金发表报告表示，受新冠疫情影响，该行监测内地的60城市中仅32城披露销售数据。上周32城新房销 售面积环比增长82%，同比下降62%，跌幅持续收窄；2月同比下降77%。上周300城宅地成交面积环比增长 6%，同比下降26%。2月首套、二套房平均贷款利率均下降1个基点。该行指，内地新房市场边际回温，同比跌幅继续收窄。上周32城新房销售面积环比增长82%(上上周+71%)，同比下降62%(2月前三周分别同比-95%、-85%及-79%)。2月全月32城新房销售面积环比1月下降73%，同比下降77%。2月克而瑞口径首10、首20、首30及首50房企的销售金额同比各下降19%、28%、30%及34%。中金称，内房政策重点正逐步由「渡难关」转向「托需求」。上周南宁、东莞、石家庄等城市出台楼市支持政策，政策重点正逐步由立足於缓解房企短期现金流压力的「渡难关」政策转向保护销售及土地市场需求合理有序恢复的「托需求」政策，如南宁允许二套房使用公积金贷款、抚州实施购房补贴、钦州100%补贴契税等。该行判断在「因城施策」框架下後续各地限购、限贷、限价等政策均有正向适度调整空间。该行判断疫情仅在短期对行业产生冲击，预计销售表现3月将进入「V」型底部，若疫情在3月基本结束，销售同比跌幅二季度起将不断收窄，行业基本面全年维度风险可控；同时政策端积极调整空间逐渐打开，将带动基本面改善和估值水平修复。当前内房板块估值和仓位仍处於底部，内房H股推荐融创(01918.HK)、世茂(00813.HK)、旭辉(00884.HK)、华润置地(01109.HK)、中国海外(00688.HK)、龙湖(00960.HK)。此外，时代中国(01233.HK)和美的置业(03990.HK)受盈利支撑业绩期料将有不错表现，建议积极关注。物业管理板块首推保利物业(06049.HK)，其次推荐永升生活服务(01995.HK)、碧桂园服务(06098.HK)和中海物业(02669.HK)。
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