《大行報告》中金：內地上周新房成交持續回暖 料3月將進入「V」型底部
阿思達克 03-03 15:58
中金發表報告表示，受新冠疫情影響，該行監測內地的60城市中僅32城披露銷售數據。上周32城新房銷 售面積環比增長82%，同比下降62%，跌幅持續收窄；2月同比下降77%。上周300城宅地成交面積環比增長 6%，同比下降26%。2月首套、二套房平均貸款利率均下降1個基點。該行指，內地新房市場邊際回溫，同比跌幅繼續收窄。上周32城新房銷售面積環比增長82%(上上周+71%)，同比下降62%(2月前三周分別同比-95%、-85%及-79%)。2月全月32城新房銷售面積環比1月下降73%，同比下降77%。2月克而瑞口徑首10、首20、首30及首50房企的銷售金額同比各下降19%、28%、30%及34%。中金稱，內房政策重點正逐步由「渡難關」轉向「托需求」。上周南寧、東莞、石家莊等城市出台樓市支持政策，政策重點正逐步由立足於緩解房企短期現金流壓力的「渡難關」政策轉向保護銷售及土地市場需求合理有序恢復的「托需求」政策，如南寧允許二套房使用公積金貸款、撫州實施購房補貼、欽州100%補貼契稅等。該行判斷在「因城施策」框架下後續各地限購、限貸、限價等政策均有正向適度調整空間。該行判斷疫情僅在短期對行業產生衝擊，預計銷售表現3月將進入「V」型底部，若疫情在3月基本結束，銷售同比跌幅二季度起將不斷收窄，行業基本面全年維度風險可控；同時政策端積極調整空間逐漸打開，將帶動基本面改善和估值水平修復。當前內房板塊估值和倉位仍處於底部，內房H股推薦融創(01918.HK)、世茂(00813.HK)、旭輝(00884.HK)、華潤置地(01109.HK)、中國海外(00688.HK)、龍湖(00960.HK)。此外，時代中國(01233.HK)和美的置業(03990.HK)受盈利支撐業績期料將有不錯表現，建議積極關注。物業管理板塊首推保利物業(06049.HK)，其次推薦永升生活服務(01995.HK)、碧桂園服務(06098.HK)和中海物業(02669.HK)。
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